[kEiThZ]

I think it's been quite well established that Iran hasn't ever gotten truly close to having a nuke

Define "close". The USIC testified to Congress 3 years away. So when do you suggest they be stopped? 1 week? 1 month? 1 year?

I think — like with Cuba — the US harbours resentment towards a country it failed to turn. There are plenty of terrible countries out there, but few have gotten as much attention as Iran.

There aren't many countries that threaten American interests like Iran. From direct attacks by Iranian proxies going back to the 80s, to heavily destabilizing the region with said proxies to openly threatening American allies in the region. Nevertheless, the US has never directly targeted the regime. And even this strike was strictly limited to the absolute minimum possible. An honest denuclearization effort would have been wider.

 

[evandyk]

I do think Harris would eventually have pulled the trigger too. Especially given the recent context, of how much Iran ramped up enrichment and started violating the NPT. She probably wouldn't have done it on Bibi's timeline though. Maybe a bit down the road.

I think Harris would have given the exact same order in the circumstances. Maybe she would have done something different months ago that would have resulted in Israel not actively being at war with Iran, but once Israel was flying their planes openly over the entire county, this was inevitable.

It certainly kicked the can down the road again. But I have zero faith that Trump (or Netanyahu) has thought about what's next in terms of a sustainable solution,

 

[kEiThZ]

It certainly kicked the can down the road again. But I have zero faith that Trump (or Netanyahu) has thought about what's next in terms of a sustainable solution,

I agree. But also, absent any desire for regime change and nation building, containment and deterrence are legitimate strategies. The Islamic Republic now knows they can't build nukes in the open anymore. And if they try, those facilities will get destroyed too. I'd say the US has accomplished its goals.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think there's some folks on the left in the US, Canada and Europe, who seem legitimately disappointed that they aren't getting the war they fearmongered about, so they can say, "I told you so...."

 

[lenaitch]

And finally, I'm not sure why folks are trying to convince me why bombing Iran is a good idea. I already found it repulsive and no one has yet made any demonstrative and compelling argument to the contrary. So my views will not budge on this...

...I suspect there are many reasons as to why peeps want to see this through. Some fairly legit others...not so, so. But in the mostly likely conclusion it will not end well for anyone. As I also think we should far more worried what the US is doing than some country over there. But you guys believe what you want to believe. I think I have said enough for now.

If you are firm in your position then no counter argument here can sway you since no one here can offer hard evidence. I will note that the US has only targetted strategic sites.

 

[zang]

Define "close". The USIC testified to Congress 3 years away. So when do you suggest they be stopped? 1 week? 1 month? 1 year?

Close starts when the country actually restarts their nuclear program? Trump's own MAGA NI said they weren't just days ago.

"The country was not building a nuclear weapon, the national intelligence director told lawmakers, and its supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program even though it had enriched uranium to higher levels."

US spies said Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment

President Donald Trump has dismissed the assessment of U.S. spy agencies that Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon before the latest conflict with Israel.

apnews.com

"An earlier intelligence report, compiled in November under then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, also said Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon.”

America's spies say Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment

Trump's national intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, told Congress in March that Iran's supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program.

www.pbs.org

 

[kEiThZ]

Close starts when the country actually restarts their nuclear program? Trump's own MAGA NI said they weren't just days ago.

"The country was not building a nuclear weapon, the national intelligence director told lawmakers, and its supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program even though it had enriched uranium to higher levels."

US spies said Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment

President Donald Trump has dismissed the assessment of U.S. spy agencies that Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon before the latest conflict with Israel.

apnews.com

"An earlier intelligence report, compiled in November under then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, also said Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon.”

America's spies say Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Trump dismisses that assessment

Trump's national intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, told Congress in March that Iran's supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program.

www.pbs.org

You dodged my question. How many days out from a nuclear test would it have been acceptable for the US to attack?

Also, I never claimed they were close. I specifically said that the US Intelligence Community said the Iranians were 3 years away.

Finally, why exactly were they enriching uranium to such high levels? You don't need those levels of enrichment for power generation. And this is exactly the problem with this construct. They get to toe the line ever closer till right before the big reveal.

 

[kEiThZ]

If you are firm in your position then no counter argument here can sway you since no one here can offer hard evidence. I will note that the US has only targetted strategic sites.

Not sure why they are pretending that anybody is trying to convince them. Or that their opinion even matters. What Canadians think is entirely irrelevant to American decisionmakers.

 

[zang]

You dodged my question. How many days out from a nuclear test would it have been acceptable for the US to attack?

The US shouldn't have attacked to begin with, regardless of how close they were, so the question is redundant. Why does the US get to determine these things? Especially with zero consultation with any other country but Israel?

Also, I never claimed they were close. I specifically said that the US Intelligence Community said the Iranians were 3 years away.

So at what point should the US have attacked Fordow? Their own intelligence said they were years away. Why did they strike in the midst of negotiations?

It wasn't a threat. They struck because Bibi asked.

Finally, why exactly were they enriching uranium to such high levels? You don't need those levels of enrichment for power generation. And this is exactly the problem with this construct. They get to toe the line ever closer till right before the big reveal.

You also need higher levels than the 60% Iran has produced in order to guarantee critical mass. That's why 90% is considered "weapons grade".

 

[kEiThZ]

The US shouldn't have attacked to begin with, regardless of how close they were, so the question is redundant.

You may be cool with the Ayatollahs having nukes. A lot of us aren't. And most importantly, most of Iran's neighbours are really not comfortable with the idea.

Why does the US get to determine these things?

Superpower privilege.

It's always cute when Canadians having won the geographical lottery complain about this. Ask the Poles or Latvians or Koreans or Japanese how they feel about their local hegemon. Heck, "elbows up" didn't even last long enough to actually build anything concrete.

So at what point should the US have attacked Fordow?

At construction. Then we wouldn't be in this mess. It's too bad they were allowed decades of toeing the line. If you're building a peaceful nuclear power program, you don't need to bury it under a granite mountain.

You also need higher levels than the 60% Iran has produced in order to guarantee critical mass. That's why 90% is considered "weapons grade".

60% is enough to make a weapon. It's just not enough to make a weapon you can put in a warhead on a missile. That doesn't make it any less dangerous. And that's setting aside other weaponization pathways like radiological bombs. By the way, you only need 4% enrichment for nuclear power.

 

[afransen]

They were never less motivated. The only difference was that they were rate limited by how fast they could get there by the controls and sanctions. It was worth the hassle to them to keep going in the open. But they would have reached a point where they could boot out the inspectors and move quickly towards weapons.



Unless you have an American passport, it's kind of irrelevant what you think. Likewise for me. Just saying....



Which is exactly why it had to happen. They'd be untouchable if they had nukes. And their current reign of terror would expand. Amazing to me how those worried about Iranians or war right now have amnesia over the decades of support the Ayatollahs gave to groups that destabilized several countries and lead to hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths.

It's irrelevant what we think, as non-US citizens, but only to a certain extent. The rest of the world is watching and US is blowing it's political capital and soft power at a prodigious rate.

 

[Jonny5]

Trump has announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel that goes into effect in stages over the next 24 hours.

 

[kEiThZ]

It's irrelevant what we think, as non-US citizens, but only to a certain extent. The rest of the world is watching and US is blowing it's political capital and soft power at a prodigious rate.

Let's be honest. The re-election of Trump already has their reputation in the bin. But also, let's be honest, none of us were doing more for the US beyond self-interest anyway. And for all this talk of decline in soft power, I don't see people completely dropping Hollywood movies, shunning McDonalds and Coca Cola and tossing their Levis. Heck, global elites still clamour to send their kids to Ivy League schools. Wake me up when elites start choosing Tsinghua over Harvard.

Also, for our part, I find it hilarious when Canadians talk. We built our prosperity on substantial dependency of the US. This isn't just the economy. The dependency is so built in, that it's taken decades to get Canadian defence spending to Western European levels. We've normalized the dependence to such a level, that even a slight reduction draws hysteria from most Canadians. Like adult basement dwelling children lashing out at the frustrated parent who says they should start looking for an apartment. I genuinely wish we were more mature as a country. But it's honestly embarassing how much more talk than actions we are (and have been for probably more than a generation).

 

[kEiThZ]

Trump has announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel that goes into effect in stages over the next 24 hours.

Doubtful it holds. But if it does, it'll be hilarious that all the prognostications of Iraq 2.0 didn't even make it 48 hrs.

Turns out a few MOPs (combined with some utter saving of IRGC infrastructure by Israel today) really may have helped the regime focused on survival.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

If you are firm in your position then no counter argument here can sway you since no one here can offer hard evidence. I will note that the US has only targetted strategic sites.

That's probably a good thing, as I don't move over to lines drawn in the sand in front of me....especially of those based on suspicion, innuendo and/or speciousness. There are reason why I don't believe the Earth is flat or created 6000 years ago, to name a couple examples of that...

...and even if there is evidence of WMD's here, there is a due process that should be respected over the use of blunt force in this example. And, IMO.

That said, you do realize they where talking about regime change and all that nonsense? That would require an occupation of said country to make that happen which would be disastrous, to put that mildly...

...but currently, this least starting to shape up to be a hit and run. As long as the Dems stop TACO goading the Heir Loompa into taking further action here. >.<