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Public backs light-rail solution
poll: Chiarelli, however, can't count on their vote, survey cautions
Mohammed Adam
The Ottawa Citizen
Saturday, July 08, 2006
As Ottawa city councillors prepare for next week's defining vote on north-south commuter rail, a new poll says most residents support the multimillion-dollar project.
A Decima-Citizen survey conducted in the days after the city's plan was unveiled, found 49 per cent of residents favoured the project and 36 per cent were against it. While the poll gives light-rail backers a platform to push the project through, it does not translate into public support for Mayor Bob Chiarelli, the plan's chief architect and booster. In fact, when asked whose view of light rail expansion they are inclined to support, slightly more people favour Alex Munter's diesel alternative.
Light rail has become a defining issue for the city, not only because of the project's potential to transform the nation's capital, but also because a lot of money is riding on it. The cost of the project ranges from $744 million to close to $900 million.
The city has settled on a double-track electric-powered system, but a heated debate is raging on whether that is the best plan. Some believe a diesel system, which is cheaper, is the better option.
In the midst of the debate, Decima Research conducted a telephone survey of 403 residents June 23-26 on various issues related to public transit.
The survey, which has a margin of error of 4.9 per cent, is considered accurate 19 times out of 20.
By a margin of 49 per cent to 36 per cent Ottawa residents saw more benefits than disadvantages in the project. Fifteen per cent didn't know or wouldn't say.
According to the survey, support for light rail was highest among regular bus riders, with 54 per cent saying the benefits outweigh the disadvantages. Among those who don't use public transit support is split, with 44 per cent seeing more benefits in light rail versus 42 per cent who don't.
Decima president Bruce Anderson says while support for light rail is still high, it is not "as clear a slam dunk as it has been in the past" and that's because the cost of the project, which is perceived to be high, has sapped some of the earlier support.
Still, more people want light rail because of the fear of growing gridlock in the city. The poll found that 78 per cent of Ottawa residents feel traffic congestion is getting worse and they want something done about it.
Support for rail is also reflected in "fairly positive" user satisfaction for OC Transpo, which 63 per cent of respondents say is doing a good job. Only 20 per cent say the transit company is not doing a good job.
"Support for light rail is driven by a sense that traffic is bad, and anything that helps to resolve it we should embrace," Mr. Anderson said. "People want a solution to traffic gridlock and they see LRT as part of it."
But in a somewhat surprising finding, public support for the project does not improve the fortunes of Mr. Chiarelli, the politician who most personifies light rail.
When asked to indicate support for either the mayor's plan or Mr. Munter's plan, 25 per cent backed Mr. Munter and 20 per cent chose the city plan, considered to be Mr. Chiarelli's. Fifty-five per cent couldn't or wouldn't say.
Regular transit users are more likely to back the mayor than Mr. Munter, whose plan draws most support from those who don't use transit or say traffic congestion is getting worse. Under Mr. Munter's plan, the city would switch to diesel system for both north-south and east-west, which would run on existing rail corridors.
Mr. Anderson said the mayor would be right to wonder why support for light rail does not extend to him.
"Mayor Chiarelli has led the fight for LRT, he is the champion of LRT and is leading the charge to create more of it and the mayor would have hoped that his numbers would be higher," Mr. Anderson said.
He says the reason for the mayor's low numbers is not because people have analysed the plans and found his wanting. It may simply be a visceral reaction to the cost of the north-south plan and a feeling among a substantial number of Ottawa residents, that the city plan "is not east-west friendly enough."
As well, many residents worried about traffic congestion may be reluctant to invest their hope for a solution in a mayor who has been around during the time the problem worsened.
"If I care about LRT and I care about affordability, Mr. Munter's plan would appeal to me more than the mayor's," Mr. Anderson said.
"And if people are looking for a vision on the issue and they are not seeing it, it is hard for an incumbent to prove the case for a new vision."
But he says during the election campaign in the fall when people are really paying attention and analysing the issues in greater detail, the mayor could have the upper hand.
"This is still a very competitive situation and over the course of the campaign, he has a chance to make his vision more compelling for people," Mr. Anderson said.
El-Chantiry's priority, however, is getting the city to address its $85-million backlog for the repair and rehabilitation of city roads. "It's going to come to a point that if the city ignores the roads, small repairs will become big repairs, if the city delays."