[crs1026]

My impression of this announcement is bad news for the short term but good news for the long term.

Saying that the work "will allow for 60-minute AD2W service to Kitchener" is effectively announcing that hourly service will be delayed by about a decade compared to its originally-planned start date of September 2023. (I'm optimistially assuming it will take about 8 years to complete all the planning and construction for the widened corridor based on Metrolinx's track record)

That 2023 date might have been thrown out, but I wonder if it was ever seriously credible. Certainly, if a deal had been inked with CN back around 2018-2019 - at the time when Phil Verster claimed it was his highest priority - the most important portion, between Bramalea and Georgetown, might be much further along than now. ML hasn't exactly rocketed ahead with other projects in the same timeframe, so it was probably as wishful a date as lots of others.

It's certainly grating that ML didn't bother doing the work that they knew was necessary on their own portion of the line (although there was some remedial work done back when ML first purchased the Silver-Kitchener portion). No excuse for how long it has taken to execute Breslau, Guelph, and Acton. For that matter, the Harvest Road layover yard was being planned 15 years ago! Nevertheless, the CN portion is the throttling obstacle to any real upgrade, even if other parts fall into place.

The "requirement" to build a dedicated corridor along the CN line is a product of negotiations with CN, not a physical limitation of the track capacity. CN's existing line is fully double-tracked with segments of triple-track, which is already quite generous for the 2 trains per hour per direction we're talking about here (1 CN/Via, 1 GO to Kitchener).To run hourly service all they technically need to do is finish the work they already started:
- Breslau passing track (complete)
- Guelph passing track and second platform (platform complete and connecting track just starting construction)
- Acton passing track (starting construction soon, I think?)
- Georgetown second platform and passing track (in the tender pipeline, but can't remember its status).
- The new double-tracked station in Kitchener is required for the planned/existing half-hourly peak service but isn't technically required for hourly off-peak.

If you scroll up, the procurement on most of those was documented, and has slipped badly. Most of that work has not even started, so it's beyond a "just finish it" proposition.

I can't blame CN for refusing to allow any further upgrade to service without a deal being signed. Too much room for Ontario to back down or defer funding, leaving CN absorbing the added trains and Ontario having no incentive to complete the investment. ML and Ontario are just not trustworthy and a bait-and-switch would have been predictable.

I'm hoping that the announced service upgrades are a sign that CN has found good reason to believe ML will finish this work. I wonder what penalty clauses there might be in event of cancellation or scaleback.

I would have hoped that as part of the "in good faith" short term enhancements, CN would have been asked to allow at least one counter peak trains.... but since ML hasn't done the necessary work on their own section, I suppose that is moot.

The fact that AD2W service is still another decade away makes it especially frustrating that they set up the Breslau passing track such that every train needs to slow down to 72 km/h even when they're not meeting any oncoming train. Trains previously cruised through Breslau at up to 112 km/h. If we're looking for ways to speed up service, eliminating the slow zone that Metrolinx created artificially for no apparent reason seems like fairly low-hanging fruit. They just need to replace the switch west of Breslau so that the main route leads to the south track rather than the north.

I have been led to believe that the east end of that siding was meant to be temporary and the double track will soon extend further east, eliminating the east end diverging turnout. That item is supposedly past procurement, but I'm not totally sure of how quick it is to happen. But yeah, it's a really dumb configuration that never should have been done.

It does sound like the end plan has a "do it once and get it right" theme, which for ML is an achievement.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

There is no mention of the train fly under but its in the drawings that are actively being worked on.

Also, for anyone new here, there was expropriation for it.

 

[Bojaxs]

Quick response while at work. Don't have time to read most of the other responses.

I wonder if this agreement with CN was part of the reason the province chose to cut ties with DB?

DB must have been out of their element when trying to negotiate with North American, Class 1, freight companies.

 

[bpbpbpbp]

https://www.reddit.com/r/gotransit/s/e0300nfGR8

someone on reddit said:
7:49am and 3:49pm towards Toronto

4:48pm and 10:48pm towards Kitchener

massive grain of salt with something like this.

Interesting, so it does seem to indicate an agreement to build a dedicated 2-track corridor adjacent to CN's in the area to separate services entirely similar to what exists on LSE through Durham.

@Allandale25 - so CN would be left with 2 tracks of their own, narrowing to 1 through downtown brampton in the pinch point, and Metrolinx would have 2 tracks from Toronto through to Georgetown?

I do wonder if they are still planning the flyover as well.

I’m also curious to know what the track ownership situation is going to be like. I would assume in principal it’ll all belong officially to CN, but MX will call the shots on 2, which becomes 1 in Downtown Brampton. Would be awesome if it’s full MX ownership (sounds too good to he true, also since Halwest and Silver exist) and if MX gets free reign of 2 tracks through Downtown Brampton rather than just one, when it gets built.

 

[Northern Light]

someone on reddit said:
7:49am and 3:49pm towards Toronto

4:48pm and 10:48pm towards Kitchener

If those times are accurate, that would seem unfortunate as they would not allow a day trip to K-W, if you took the first Toronto train out, you wouldn't arrive until the evening and there would be no return train until the next day.

 

[ShonTron]

It’s obviously aimed at the KW and Guelph markets, and probably relieving the busiest bus trips. I was really hoping it’d be four round trips, not just four one-way trips.

Getting to Guelph is ridiculously bad on the 31/33 milk run via Georgetown and Acton.

 

[Sunnyside]

If those times are accurate, that would seem unfortunate as they would not allow a day trip to K-W, if you took the first Toronto train out, you wouldn't arrive until the evening and there would be no return train until the next day.

It works out quite well for students. Personally I did not look forward to taking trains to Bramalea and bussing to Kitchener in a sardine can, or vice versa.

Day trips would be nice, but that is secondary to this segment, which represents the clear bulk of riders. This at least opens the door to better scheduling/service in the future.

 

[Metroscapes]

As others have noted, it is very suspicious that they didn't mention the flyunder. Like I said above, the flyunder was never technically required for hourly service, but was definitely a nice-to-have to reduce delays related to CN. The Kitchener business case document noted that they estimated they'd need to add 8 minutes of schedule padding (per direction) if GO trains consistently cross CN at-grade near Georgetown.

I probably don't analyze it as deep as you but I'm very suspect of a flyover not technically being required. Over a decade ago, GO would get snagged at or outside Georgetown by CN trains all the time. Perhaps a current Kitchener line rider could characterize it under existing conditions. But even with padding it seems to be such a reliability risk.

 

[reaperexpress]

I probably don't analyze it as deep as you but I'm very suspect of a flyover not technically being required. Over a decade ago, GO would get snagged at or outside Georgetown by CN trains all the time. Perhaps a current Kitchener line rider could characterize it under existing conditions. But even with padding it seems to be such a reliability risk.

I meant that it's not required from a capacity perspective. There's plenty of spare capacity to accommodate 1 train per hour. It is indeed very beneficial from a reliability perspective, hence why I quoted the 8 minutes of additional schedule padding that Metrolinx estimates they would need in the absence of a flyunder. That is more padding than there is in the existing schedule.

If those times are accurate, that would seem unfortunate as they would not allow a day trip to K-W, if you took the first Toronto train out, you wouldn't arrive until the evening and there would be no return train until the next day.

Travelling from Toronto to KW with a transfer to Route 30 at Bramalea is just as fast as a direct train. So it is absolutely possible to do a day trip to K-W. In fact, with half-hourly train service to Bramalea, the effective frequency of route 30 will presumably double, since the 2 to 3 buses per hour that already exist will presumably be spread out to depart every 30 minutes rather than all in a row once per hour.

Like @ShonTron mentioned, the main advantage of the direct train service is the connection to Guelph, since it's way faster than the route 31/33 bus alternative.

 

[crs1026]

^The capacity constraint is not just for GO, it’s for CN. A GO train needs to be lined at least five minutes ahead of its arrival otherwise it will encounter restrictive aignals and be forced to slow down. And then it would take some period of time to travel thru the crossing point. With a flat junction, At two trains an hour lined across CN, that’s effectively fifteen minutes out of the hour that CN is blocked. And it’s an even bigger problem for a freight to encounter restrictive signals, especially since it’s uphill both ways to Georgetown and there is the potential for crossings to be blocked if freights hold back.
And if those freights were slow moving, GO would have to wait its turn.
CN would undoubtedly be offering less flexibiliry if ML only proposed a flat junction.

- Paul

 

[Metroscapes]

^The capacity constraint is not just for GO, it’s for CN. A GO train needs to be lined at least five minutes ahead of its arrival otherwise it will encounter restrictive aignals and be forced to slow down. And then it would take some period of time to travel thru the crossing point. With a flat junction, At two trains an hour lined across CN, that’s effectively fifteen minutes out of the hour that CN is blocked. And it’s an even bigger problem for a freight to encounter restrictive signals, especially since it’s uphill both ways to Georgetown and there is the potential for crossings to be blocked if freights hold back.
And if those freights were slow moving, GO would have to wait its turn.
CN would undoubtedly be offering less flexibiliry if ML only proposed a flat junction.

- Paul

On top of this, my point is just that we're talking ideal scheduling. In reality, things get screwed up.

 

[ShonTron]

Travelling from Toronto to KW with a transfer to Route 30 at Bramalea is just as fast as a direct train. So it is absolutely possible to do a day trip to K-W. In fact, with half-hourly train service to Bramalea, the effective frequency of route 30 will presumably double, since the 2 to 3 buses per hour that already exist will presumably be spread out to depart every 30 minutes rather than all in a row once per hour.

Like @ShonTron mentioned, the main advantage of the direct train service is the connection to Guelph, since it's way faster than the route 31/33 bus alternative.

Again, I’d like to see a weekend Route 39, an express bus between Bramalea and Guelph via 407 and 401 with Aberfoyle as the first stop.

 

[reaperexpress]

On top of this, my point is just that we're talking ideal scheduling. In reality, things get screwed up.

We are not talking ideal scheduling. We are talking about schedules with massive amounts of schedule padding to accommodate the inevitable delays. We are talking about 8 more minutes of schedule padding to every single trip, on top of all the schedule padding they already have, which is quite a lot.