lastcommodore
Active Member
The problem is that we end up comparing (project A costs, toronto, 2019) versus (project B, not toronto, some other time) and so inevitably we kind of miss the elephant in the room that we are completely incapable of building at cost.I still don't know why subway was not a good idea. I used AI to get the numbers, so I am not saying they are 100% accurate, but they are hopefully in the ballpark.
Circa 2014, the FWLRT was estimated to cost $2.5B, or $1.1B for construction alone - so $100M/km. Inflate to 2018 the contract was for about $110M/km (for the construction portion). Everyone knew at the time that the temptation to add Stops would be huge with an on-street LRT, especially a low floor one. So complaining about that at this point is ignoring something we have known for over a decade.
Circa 2005, the Canada Line construction started for a 20km line at a cost of $2B. That's 100M/km. Inflate to 2018 is $150M/km. And this is for a 50% elevated, 50% underground "subway". Assume more elevation than was done in Vancouver and you get to $130M/km.
So the options at the time were;
1) Minor bus improvements for $5M/km, or.
2) 90% on-street LRT for $110M/km, or
3) 90% elevated "subway" for $130M/km.
At the time, and now, I still vote for #1, then #3, and #2 last.
But if the City said their 2 top priorities at the time were transit on Sheppard East and Finch West, and they said major improvement MUST occur in these areas even before we can even start thinking about other corridors, e.g. the DRL (Ontario Line corridor), then I think it's reasonable to say that "subway" would have been the best option to move people and meet the political goals of the day.
"110M/km for tram or 130M/km for elevated subway" makes literally zero sense. That shouldnt be possible, how in the world can elevated only be a price diff of 20M/km? It only is because we're actually comparing (tram, toronto, 2019) vs. (elevated, vancouver, 2005) and so any Toronto recent price is saddled with cost overruns.
I guarantee you if Toronto built 6FW as an elevated a la Canada line, a (elevated, Toronto, 2019), it'd end at 1bn/km and somehow still 1/2 the advertised speed. Likewise if (tram, Vancouver, 2005) happened itd probably be like 30M/km and 2x the speed of 6FW right now.
A point ive been trying to not so subtly make on some of this tram v. brt v. subway v. elevated debate. Costs between these solutions are frankly less important than the added cost of incompetence here. 6FW could have been an elevated metro for a bit more *if we could build competently. It also could be what it is now for a lot, lot less.




