[Admiral Beez]

I mean, it's a very conceptual argument because "Toronto should shift how it finances condos" is literally just the choice of major lenders.

Make what prospective homeowners both want and can afford and condo builders will still be able to secure the necessary pre-construction sales. We’re here because developers built “investor” units that no one wants to live in, played up to buyers intending to flip for profit before closing, and ignored the 2-3 bedroom units that people need.

 

[ADRM]

Make what prospective homeowners both want and can afford and condo builders will still be able to secure the necessary pre-construction sales. We’re here because developers built “investor” units that no one wants to live in, played up to buyers intending to flip for profit before closing, and ignored the 2-3 bedroom units that people need.

I don't disagree at all with the characterization of the "how we got here", but the suggested prescription here is not a thing that would un-stick the market. The current reality is that, in the final roll-up of a development pro forma, there are revenues and costs. Right now, on most sites in the GTHA, the revenues do not outstrip the costs by the margin required to attract private investment (or public sector financing!) that would allow those projects to proceed, and changing the product type is not going to un-stick that problem.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The current reality is that, in the final roll-up of a development pro forma, there are revenues and costs. Right now, on most sites in the GTHA, the revenues do not outstrip the costs by the margin required to attract private investment (or public sector financing!) that would allow those projects to proceed, and changing the product type is not going to un-stick that problem.

Then the costs/fees/taxes must be brought down to provide the 2-3 Bdrm units homeowners (rather than investors) want at prices they can afford. Otherwise, the GTA condo business is now forever unprofitable and presumably dead.

 

[Jonny5]

Lake Scugog, a popular lake in the sought-after Kawartha Lakes region, has long been home to beautiful recreational properties on the waterfront.
In the heart of the district, a classic bungalow containing three bedrooms and two bathrooms with ample green space and direct views of the lake, attracted a flock of buyers during the pandemic. In January 2022, the home sold for $1.1 million — a stretch for the 1,100-square-foot home.

The following summer the property was re-listed but there were no takers. After a series of price reductions it finally sold for $735,000 last April — a whopping $365,000 loss in just three years.

They bought cottages during the pandemic real estate rush. Now they’re losing up to $365,000 when they sell

Ontario recreational properties are sitting with no offers, as experts say the market is stagnant and oversupplied.

www.thestar.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

It's immigration and monetary policy, not mortgage fraud.

Sometimes it is…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-25/the-mortgage-fraud-scheme-that-stole-canadians-homes

Paywall free: https://archive.is/gRDWF

A classic story of greed winning over commonsense.

 

[Undead]

Sometimes it is…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-25/the-mortgage-fraud-scheme-that-stole-canadians-homes

Paywall free: https://archive.is/gRDWF

A classic story of greed winning over commonsense.

From the article:

"As a wave of immigration drove home prices to new records and caused a spike in property development, a frenzy of greed and FOMO broke out among regular people, and the number of frauds reported to police nationwide more than doubled."

Sounds like it's high prices triggering fraud, not the other way around.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

From the Globe:

Ottawa faces growing pressure to loosen foreign homebuying ban

The Large Urban Centre Alliance of developers are looking to access much-needed capital and reduce the cost of construction

www.theglobeandmail.com

The federal government is under pressure to relax the foreign homebuyer ban, as builders deal with one of the worst real estate to allow foreigners to buy preconstruction condos and houses.
---
Earlier in July, major B.C. developers had called on Prime Minister Mark Carney and Housing Minister Gregor Robertson to relax the foreign buyer ban.
The alliance was supported by the Building Industry and Land Development Association, a trade group, and includes developers Bentall Green Oak, Canderel, Cantiro Homes, DiamondCorp, Fitzrovia Real Estate, Great Gulf, Menkes Developments, RioCan REIT, Polygon Homes, Wesgroup and Tricon Residential.

How about no? We were told year after year that foregin homebuying wasn't the cause of the bubble when it clearly was at least partially responsible for it,

AoD

 

[Undead]

Domestic speculators and the government artificially juicing demand were always the dominant factors. IIRC, foreign buyers are a tiny part of the market outside Vancouver.

 

[lenaitch]

Before the Soviet Union fell in 1991, there was a lot of western European land ownership in Atlantic Canada, particularly German. I guess they figured if the balloons went up, being a landowner would make it easier to emigrate.

 

[MisterF]

'From bad to terrible’: Toronto's market for new condos has fallen off a cliff

Sales in Toronto are down 77% from last year to levels not seen in 30 years, according to Urbanation Inc.

Hildebrand said there were only 1,060 sales in the first six months of the year, whereas a typical year would see around 10,000 sales. “The market is basically functioning at 10 per cent of its normal volume.”

 

[Jonny5]

When the bubble burst begins, this is the kind of thing that happens.
All that was being swept under the rug gets exposed.

Toronto-area real estate brokerage shuttered due to financial mismanagement, affecting 2,400 agents
Ontario's regulator said it identified "a significant shortfall" of $10 million in iPro Realty Ltd.s' accounts.

Toronto-area real estate brokerage shuttered due to financial mismanagement, affecting 2,400 agents

Ontario’s regulator said it identified ‘a significant shortfall’ in the accounts of iPro Realty Ltd., which employs 2,400 agents.

www.thestar.com

 

[Jonny5]

Update to the above.

With the support of RECO’s board of directors, I have acted and effective August 22, Mr. Joseph Richer, the Registrar appointed under the Trust in Real Estate Services Act, 2002, has left RECO,” Brenda Buchanan, CEO of RECO, told the Star

RECO registrar loses job in wake of iPro Realty scandal

RECO cut a deal with iPro’s cofounders that would see them not charged or fined over missing $10 million from trust accounts.

www.thestar.com