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Yoshimura said:
Any predictions as to where everyone sees the Toronto real estate market in 5 years?
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Lower, but no crash. You wouldn't think it from all then hype, and this includes Oz linked a few posts above, but more markets stabilize over time when overvalued than crash.

It's just that crashes get more attention. Think plane crashes. And yet it's by far the safest way to travel. In Toronto's case, the lack of housing will persist, especially rental, but the control will be tighter financing conditions, and people voting with their feet to buy elsewhere.
 
So, how long do we have to wait before we declare it a soft landing?

Prices peaked in July of 2017 with an index of 254.93, and then fell 7.4% to 236.07 in Dec. 2017. Since then in the last year and a half, they've increased at about the rate of inflation.

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In any case, in less than 6 months, this thread will be a full decade old! Prices in Toronto have settled at just over double what they were when this thread started.

Nov 2009: Index at 119.21
Apr 2019: Index at 244.56
 
Seems like it. 2017 was the peak right around when all of the policies came out (ie: stress test). This is a good thing. Double digit gains year over year is just not sustainable.

Vancouver/BC prices are tanking though.
 
So, it’s been almost 10 years since this thread was created. Within that time, i personally have bought a condo downtown, lived in it, rented it out (since I moved out of Ontario for work) and have sold the property since.

I’m considering getting back into the Toronto condo market with a 2 bed/2 bath unit that I can potentially rent out. I find that the cost per sq are a bit better with 2 bdrms.

Any further thoughts on the condo market in the GTA? The prices for and DOM for anything in Toronto still seems to be very strong and rental vacant rates are at an all time low. If you were me, would you try and get in the market?
 
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Yoshimura said:
Any predictions as to where everyone sees the Toronto real estate market in 5 years?
Click to expand...
As much as I would love to see them come down, my money is on prices continuing to rise over that period of time, especially for condos. Rent is so high right now it makes mortgages seem reasonable. Plus, Toronto's population is increasing faster than any other city in North America so the demand will be there.
 
Of course Toronto is overvalued. When a wretched chipboard bungalow in Scarborough is going for a million plus, you know there's a problem.
 
Yoshimura said:
Any predictions as to where everyone sees the Toronto real estate market in 5 years?
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More and more condos. Expect more older dilapidated low rise retail to be sold off and developed into mid-rise modern, mass chain, retail. For example, I expect the entire retail strip on the west side of Parliament from above Callaghan Lane to Shuter to be torn out once Regent Park is fully developed. Those residing in the market value units in Regent will want higher end food and other retail, not the shabby places there now. Especially the NW corner of Dundas and Parliament, that area is crying out for re-development.

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Also expect more tracks of post-war SFHs to be bought up by developers for condo construction. With east and west already packed, the Greenbelt and expensive 407 blocking northern development and the lake to the south, the only place to grow is upward.

I imagine when I'm a relatively old man, sitting in my backyard will be like viewing the towers from NYC's Central Park.
 
Admiral Beez said:
More and more condos. Expect more older dilapidated low rise retail to be sold off and developed into mid-rise modern, mass chain, retail. For example, I expect the entire retail strip on the west side of Parliament from above Callaghan Lane to Shuter to be torn out once Regent Park is fully developed. Those residing in the market value units in Regent will want higher end food and other retail, not the shabby places there now. Especially the NW corner of Dundas and Parliament, that area is crying out for re-development.
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There are still many areas of the city like this that can be developed.

I still don't see it as being the long-term answer though. Just delaying the inevitable fight we will have with the Toronto Yellowbelt / "Stable Neighbourhoods".
 
WislaHD said:
I still don't see it as being the long-term answer though. Just delaying the inevitable fight we will have with the Toronto Yellowbelt / "Stable Neighbourhoods".
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Answer to what question? We can't continue with the 1970s-90s scouring of farm and forest land to build SFHs.

Whenever I fly to Germany I note from the plane how much green space there is between towns and cities. Somehow Germany fits over 83 million people into a country with half the area of Saskatchewan but keeps its rural and agricultural areas. They do it through density. That's the answer you seek. Alternatively, we have a huge country that is sparsely populated - we don't all need to live in the Golden Horseshoe.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Answer to what question? We can't continue with the 1970s-90s scouring of farm and forest land to build SFHs.

Whenever I fly to Germany I note from the plane how much green space there is between towns and cities. Somehow Germany fits over 83 million people into a country with half the area of Saskatchewan but keeps its rural and agricultural areas. They do it through density. That's the answer you seek. Alternatively, we have a huge country that is sparsely populated - we don't all need to live in the Golden Horseshoe.
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The question is generally about where to house people, I guess.

I applaud the development taking place along arterial road corridors and in the downtown area, but eventually all that low-density single-detached residential areas in the City need to be addressed. They aren't there for market reasons, they are there because of government intervention via zoning.

Yes, density is the answer, but more specifically, we need to change our built-form, because you can't build density with this typical inner-city Toronto built form. We need to allow those neighbourhoods to transform themselves into something more like this typical built form found elsewhere in the world.
 
WislaHD said:
We need to allow those neighbourhoods to transform themselves into something more like this typical built form found elsewhere in the world.
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I like that. In Nuremberg, Germany last year I walked from my hotel to the Nazi museum and walked through a lot of tight residential streets that looked exactly like this. I suppose it helped expedite development when the area's original housing was flattened in the war.

I like low rise residential flats, but my real estate contacts tell me that it is too expensive to develop low rise. For example, the Rexall site at Wincester and Parliament is zoned for five stories, but the owner says he needs at least ten to make any money. I suppose a lot of that is BS greed, but we shouldn't have fees and construction costs so high that only high rises are feasible.

Mind you, I live in Cabbagetown and I love the protected designation of the neighbourhood. I wouldn't want any 10 storey mid-rises here. So, I suppose that's NIMBY, but I'd support it on Parliament St. nearby .
 
What I think is going to happen: downtown will "sprawl" east toward the DVP. It's already happening. In the longer term, the entire area between Bloor, DVP, Front and Yonge will be redeveloped with towers. What I'd like to see: all SFH within a ten minute walk of all subway, LRT and 2WAD GO redeveloped into walkable high density.
 
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