[innsertnamehere]

This is a razor-thin margin when you consider that there has been no campaign and you only need less than a 7 point swing to get it over the line. Given the demographics, the number of federalist will continue to decline indefinitely.

In the coming campaign, the Government of Quebec will support independence, and there will be intense foreign interference from the United States and Russia to prime Canada for Balkanisation and annexation. Federalists have no momentum.

In my opinion, it's now prudent to start disentangling Canada's relationship with Quebec now before entering into major projects like ALTO to save pain later.

perhaps. But it's far from the foregone conclusion you are making it out to be.

The high rise of Canadian nationalism in the last 6 months definitely hurts your argument that "federalists have no momentum" as well. Canadian Nationalism is at it's highest in decades.

Regardless, any discussion of Quebec separatism is highly speculative and has little to do with Alto.

 

[Adjei]

That's an awfully bold statement for a poll which shows a 12-point lead to staying in Canada.

Also with an increasingly hostile America to the south, if they think a French speaking country of 9 million surrounded by two English speaking countries with combined population of 370 million plus will thrive is being delusional. They should run a campaign on this and debate this and bring at all the facts. Frankly I find it crazy how serious matters like referendums to separate a country can be proposed just Willy jolly like that. You have people proposing referendums in Alberta and now Quebec. Try proposing referendums in more serious countries like the US or France and see what happens. They take these matters more serious.

 

[Northern Light]

Just out of curiosity, and maybe this has been covered or is not known and part of the project study, but are we assuming a double tracked line from end to end? or single tracked with long stretches of double track for passing purposes at speed? or will the west bound train have to wait at the Sharbot Lake Station waiting on the east bound? And i would expect that once we depart Union and cross whatever points we need to to access the DV line, the train would quickly accelerate to a higher speed, that would feature a 1 followed by a couple of digits (In kmh), and then gain a top speed once we exit the DV and whatever tighter turns and elevation climbs are met ( assuming the DV approach is the thing and Doug does not offer up his tunneling machines for a more 'direct ' route through Scarborough?)

I think you're forgetting this, @crs :

Alto - High Speed Rail (Toronto-Quebec City)

I hope Carney sticks to his word when he said he wanted HSR from QC to Windsor and not just to Union.

urbantoronto.ca

The above post addresses the double-track issue.

 

[micheal_can]

I'm on a bit of a comeback towards the idea that passenger rail should fully be a provincial responsibility. This is really the sticking point for me though:

Favorables à 56 % | « Montée spectaculaire » du souverainisme chez les jeunes

Les chiffres rappellent ceux de l’époque du deuxième référendum. Dans une « montée spectaculaire » du souverainisme qui se poursuit chez la jeune génération, 56 % des 18 à 34 ans sont maintenant favorables à l’indépendance du Québec.

www.lapresse.ca

Support for independence in Quebec has been consistently increasing and the latest polling has it just about over the line, with a majority of young voters supporting it. The next government of Quebec will be the PQ and they will be holding a referendum. It looks inevitable that Quebec will no longer be a part of Canada by 2030.

I don't really see ALTO as a "national building" project when the part of the "nation" it serves no longer wants to be part of Canada. Why spend billions as a country on something like this when soon much of your investment will be on the other side of an international border which will not only reduce service demand, but will at best create a horrendously messy situation over which government owes for development and construction?

This project is a much harder sell as a federal responsibility when the country is facing a three-fronted assault on its very existence from the USA, Alberta, and Quebec.

Ontario could very easily build their own high speed or higher speed connection between Toronto and Ottawa, then westward in phases towards Windsor with incremental improvements. I fail to see why Quebec should remain an integral part of the project in light of this consistent polling trend.

Having the federal government pay for tings seems to keep separation down enough that it cannot win.

 

[Mihairokov]

I'm on a bit of a comeback towards the idea that passenger rail should fully be a provincial responsibility.

What's the point of an HFR line that ends in Cornwall?

 

[crs1026]

I think you're forgetting this, @crs :

Alto - High Speed Rail (Toronto-Quebec City)

I hope Carney sticks to his word when he said he wanted HSR from QC to Windsor and not just to Union.

urbantoronto.ca

The above post addresses the double-track issue.

LOL not forgotten, I was just erring on the side of the door left open. I'm not confident that we are past the stage of dreaming and really certain on what is required. Clearly, if speeds are to be high end, trains will not be pulling into sidings to pass each other.

- Paul

 

[nfitz]

Clearly, if speeds are to be high end, trains will not be pulling into sidings to pass each other.

Clearly?

Though not pulling in. Long enough that it's design for high-speed passes. Which I believe was the basis for both VIA 1984 and VIA 1989.

 

[crs1026]

Clearly?

Though not pulling in. Long enough that it's design for high-speed passes. Which I believe was the basis for both VIA 1984 and VIA 1989.

If you calculate the length of the passing lengths that are needed to assure two trains of passing at speed, while giving a margin of error for trains that run even 5 minutes late....and then assume a headway such that a second train may be even 15 minutes behind.... once you are above 200 km/hr, you are talking about very long passing sections spaced quite close together. For all intents, that's double track.

- Paul

 

[C_Johnson_1995]

unless you see separation as leading to a decline in transportation between the two "provinces". I would predict that the need for inter"provincial" transportation to remain strong and to grow.

I think this would happen definitionally. It is unlikely that Canada would agree to an open border or economic union with an independent Quebec. It would not be in Canada's interest nor would it be politically tenable on either side of the border. The idea of independence is to distance the relationship and as both sides move away from the separation, business and personal ties would decline along with transportation needs. To put it simply, there would be no love lost and Canada's very existence would be at stake since the Atlantic provinces would then be exclaves with no reason to remain in confederation, and western separatists would be emboldened.

A high speed line ending in Ottawa makes much more sense due to the city's tremendous growth. And given loosening business and cultural ties to Montreal alongside an international border, an extension beyond Ottawa continually makes less and less sense.

But it's far from the foregone conclusion you are making it out to be.

The high rise of Canadian nationalism in the last 6 months definitely hurts your argument that "federalists have no momentum" as well. Canadian Nationalism is at it's highest in decades

When the next government of Quebec which is projected to be a large margin majority will do everything in their power to exacerbate these trends to get the desired result over the line, it is effectively a foregone conclusion. The other important consideration is that these trends toward nationalism in Quebec are in response to the Trump threat as posed in the accompanying article. There may have been a small increase in Canadian patriotism but it is small and has not really been felt in Quebec or Alberta. When the base of support for your movement is young people who are able to be online and mobilise in support, you are at a critical advantage which places the nationalists as the favourites to win the next referendum.

Regardless, any discussion of Quebec separatism is highly speculative and has little to do with Alto.

It has everything to do with ALTO. The current project is highly Quebec-centric and ignores Ontario's interests in favour of Quebec's. When the bulk of your project is an expensive tunneling boondoggle (Mount Royal) between Montreal and Quebec which only require modest intercity rail upgrades, while SWO which is much more growth-oriented and easier to build is left out completely, you have a big problem. When you combine this with a surge in support for separation, I don't see why anyone in Ontario should support this project as it currently stands. Unless these issues are addressed, Ontario should stand in opposition.

 

[Urban Sky]

I‘m really reluctant to give this „what if Quebec decides to separate from Canada overnight?“ nonsense any attention it very obviously doesn’t deserve here, but just this much:

About independence referenda

The main points which became evident from the mess after the referenda regarding the potential independence of Scotland and Catalonia (or the withdrawal of the UK from the EU) were that you need a clearly laid out legal process and path to obtain an orderly independence (if a vote is successful) and that you need a clealy defined end agreement before a final vote is made (e.g., people can‘t vote for a Brexit without that it has already been decided whether the trade relations of the new state are going to ressemble a protectionist Fortress Britannica or an ultra-liberal Singapore-Upon-Thames. Every Canadian should therefore welcome when infdivifual provinces ask questions which lead to an ernest discussion about how federal-provincial ties can be distangled, assets (think: CPP and any federal buildings and facilities) and liabilities (think: federal debts and pension entitlements for public servants) can be split and what treaties and memberships currently held by Canada would automatically extend to the new state and which ones not.

I would therefore assume that there are 5 steps for any independence movement in Canada:

1. Templates are defined for the separation and future relationships with each other and international organizations.
2. A mandate is sought by the province wishing to separate through a first referendum, authorizing the negotiation of a separation agreement.
3. If the first referendum succeeds, a separation agreement is negotiated between the province in question and the federal government.
4. Once the separation agreement is negotiated, a second referendum is held in the province to decide whether to separate on the negotiated terms or to remain within Canada.
5. If the second referendum succeeds, the separation agreement gets executed, as had been agreed beforehand between the undersigning parties.

Nobody should be scared of establishing and executing such an orderly procedure, which will provide clarity one way or another, even if we never reach Step 4 (let alone: 5).

About ALTO favoring Ontario or Quebec

Even if it has not been officially revealed which of the 3 Phases relates to which segment, it‘s already abundantly clear that:

• Segment 1 will be Montreal to Ottawa, the by-far easiest to build segment which is also the only segment to cross the border between the two provinces roughly in the middle (so that 58% is in ON and 42% in QC, which almost exactly matches the respective population split, which is 62:38), which affirms that this project is an interprovincial project and thus within the mandate of the federal government.
• Segment 2 will be 400 km within Ontario, which is the largest province. Despite running through the Canadian Shield, it won‘t be particularly difficult to build and the final approach into Toronto can be built in close collaboration with Metrolinx, which is currently massively investing into its corridors and will thus be tempted to leverage the provincial funds with some federal funding sources.
• Segment 3 would be 270 km built within Quebec in relatively easy terrain, but the Mont-Royal situation indeed puts a large question mark at this segment, which is regrettable, but a Quebec-issue, not a federal (let alone: Ontario) issue.

If all 3 segments get actually built, 59% (505 out of 850 km) of the route length would be built in Ontario, which (again!) closely matches the propulation split between the two provinces.

***

I really struggle to understand how why we are dragged again and again (by the same commenter!) into these (IMHO) superfluous and pointless discussions…

 

[C_Johnson_1995]

This is basically the last I want to say on the topic for a long while because there isn't anything left to address, but just some final thoughts:

I‘m really reluctant to give this „what if Quebec decides to separate from Canada overnight?“ nonsense any attention it very obviously doesn’t deserve here,

Not sure why you think it's nonsense. It's in the mainstream, and will become probably among the most important (at least attention-consuming) issues in Quebec politics when the PQ takes power next year. Given the timescale of a project like ALTO which is measured in decades, this uncertainty to the core of the project's purpose is highly relevant in determining if this is a project that we the Canadian public believe is in our best interest in pursuing.

About independence referenda

The main points which became evident from the mess after the referenda regarding the potential independence of Scotland and Catalonia (or the withdrawal of the UK from the EU) were that you need a clearly laid out legal process and path to obtain an orderly independence (if a vote is successful) and that you need a clealy defined end agreement before a final vote is made (e.g., people can‘t vote for a Brexit without that it has already been decided whether the trade relations of the new state are going to ressemble a protectionist Fortress Britannica or an ultra-liberal Singapore-Upon-Thames. Every Canadian should therefore welcome when infdivifual provinces ask questions which lead to an ernest discussion about how federal-provincial ties can be distangled, assets (think: CPP and any federal buildings and facilities) and liabilities (think: federal debts and pension entitlements for public servants) can be split and what treaties and memberships currently held by Canada would automatically extend to the new state and which ones not.

I would therefore assume that there are 5 steps for any independence movement in Canada:

1. Templates are defined for the separation and future relationships with each other and international organizations.
2. A mandate is sought by the province wishing to separate through a first referendum, authorizing the negotiation of a separation agreement.
3. If the first referendum succeeds, a separation agreement is negotiated between the province in question and the federal government.
4. Once the separation agreement is negotiated, a second referendum is held in the province to decide whether to separate on the negotiated terms or to remain within Canada.
5. If the second referendum succeeds, the separation agreement gets executed, as had been agreed beforehand between the undersigning parties.

Nobody should be scared of establishing and executing such an orderly procedure, which will provide clarity one way or another, even if we never reach Step 4 (let alone: 5).

Not to get too in-detail with this, given the current political climate as well as how things went with Brexit, I'm not sure why you think things will be different this time. Separation when it comes will be a very time-consuming and painful process, likely with a lot of loose ends left over when all is said and done. Given the strong emotions on both sides of this debate, as well as how much more deeply both sides are integrated in comparison to Brexit, I see no reason to believe otherwise.

Now I, as a resident of Ontario must ask myself if it is in my interest to entangle myself more deeply with a province which is endeavouring to separate itself from my province and country in a way that will increase the complexity of the ensuing separation proceedings. I personally think that Ontario and the federal government would be wise to see the writing on the wall and make things easier for when the time comes. It is therefore in Ontario's best interest to insulate itself, build intra-provincial rail links and deepen ties with provinces likely to remain in confederation. ALTO is therefore a project not within Ontario's, and thus my own, interest to support.

I really struggle to understand how why we are dragged again and again (by the same commenter!) into these (IMHO) superfluous and pointless discussions…

You are welcome not to engage with my line of thinking if you find it so exasperating. I haven't brought up this topic in over 8 months, and even then it was only one post to reference it. I have since voiced my support for delegating passenger rail funding and operation responsibilities away from VIA and to the provinces, but this had nothing to do with this issue at that time, but rather the my perception of the federal government's inability to deliver projects like this. In any event, I fail to see how I "keep" dragging you into this discussion topic.

 

[zang]

Not sure why you think it's nonsense. It's in the mainstream, and will become probably among the most important (at least attention-consuming) issues in Quebec politics when the PQ takes power next year.

You keep saying this like it’s a forgone conclusion, ignoring the changing demographics of places like Montreal, and a lack of interest for separation amongst younger voters.

Yes, the PQ has been polling well the last year, but ask Pierre Poilievre how well polls predict elections.

It is therefore in Ontario's best interest to insulate itself, build intra-provincial rail links and deepen ties with provinces likely to remain in confederation. ALTO is therefore a project not within Ontario's, and thus my own, interest to support.

So, why all the posturing in this thread?

 

[Thaboss]

as well as how things went with Brexit,

Yes lets compare a sovereign country leaving the EU, a legal entity that has an exit clause written in its constitution, with a province attempting to leave Canada, which would require a constitutional amendment...hmm yes very similar and sound logic indeed.

Btw this is the same province that essentially threw bloc quebecois to the wolves to elect the libs 4 months ago...that province ?


Could it happen ? Sure

Could AB vote to leave ? Sure

Could ON vote to leave ? Why not

What about BC ? Of course.

So let's kill all large infrastructure planning now because it could all blow up in our face and so that you can sleep sound at night without concern for ontarios wellbeing

 

[Urban Sky]

Btw this is the same province that essentially threw bloc quebecois to the wolves to elect the libs 4 months ago...that province ?

Thanks for mentioning the last federal election (less than four months ago!), where the leading party was confirmed in power by a vote share which is indistinguishable from the federal share (42.6% vs. 43.8%), whereas the separist party received marginally less votes than the parties ending nationally as official opposition and Rank 4 combined (27.7% vs. 27.8%)!

It truly takes a remarkable degree of numerical analphabetism to interpret these figures as a strong desire for separatism and a high degree of polarization against federal politics. I wish I could say the same about Alberta, but that‘s thankfully even more irrelevant for this thread than already this discussion is…

 

[dowlingm]

While the US border is currently a massive impediment to passenger rail movement, there is absolutely no basis to believe that is how an ROC-Quebec border would. More likely a have your cake and eat it setup with Schengen-like intergovernmental cooperation. Surely the PQ have seen how a hard border for ideological reasons worked out for the UK, and Canada has incentive to agree on its part to ensure the Atlantic provinces remain bound in to the country.