[CalgaryTiger]

Unfortunately, I think the days of scandal being someone's downfall are over. The answer is simple, it is the economy. As long as that is seemingly humming with high oil prices people will be fat and happy. We're different that other provinces, people here don't seem to be that bothered by the high price of oil, they know what it means for the economy.

 

[DougB]

Separation and the healthcare scandal are loser issues for the NDP so far. Janet Brown's polling clearly identified one third of the electorate as being against separation but unhappy with Ottawa but to sending a message. Getting teary eyed over Canada isn't going to win these people over. Similarly, few people outside those who work in the public sector believe that more funding, more staff or better working conditions are going to improve outcomes after several decades of failure. They may be open to the corruption aspect of the scandal, but not necessarily that outsourcing in general is the problem. The NDP is too confined by its own internal dynamics to reach out to swing voters. Avi Lewis has made that much, much worse.

 

[darwink]

Janet Brown's polling clearly identified one third of the electorate as being against separation but unhappy with Ottawa but to sending a message.

Pollara found the same, more explicitly. It is very very bad news. People don't think separation is a risk, but a big group of voters think it is a viable protest strategy. Brexit written all over it.

On the plus side, Pollara's numbers show a UCP defeat despite the UCP winning the popular vote by a lot. Pollara's results might show differently by choosing different boundaries for Calgary's borders. Some areas within the CMA, but outside of Calgary, are rural Alberta UCP strong, much stronger UCP base than 'other'. If you include those in 'Calgary', you get very very different results, and the race seems much much closer.

 

[trtcttc]

Separation and the healthcare scandal are loser issues for the NDP so far. Janet Brown's polling clearly identified one third of the electorate as being against separation but unhappy with Ottawa but to sending a message. Getting teary eyed over Canada isn't going to win these people over. Similarly, few people outside those who work in the public sector believe that more funding, more staff or better working conditions are going to improve outcomes after several decades of failure. They may be open to the corruption aspect of the scandal, but not necessarily that outsourcing in general is the problem. The NDP is too confined by its own internal dynamics to reach out to swing voters. Avi Lewis has made that much, much worse.

The healthcare scandal isn't about healthcare spending. I don' think making a big deal out of limited healthcare privatization is going to be a winner for the NDP, but if there is a clear link and easier to understand corruption in the MHCare issue, that could be something that can turn the centre-right vote away. Is there any polling on whether the NDP would gain votes if they became the Alberta Labour Party or something else and completely sever from the NDP?

 

[darwink]

A pollster who commonly is branded as anti conservative recently observed this:

 

[DougB]

A pollster who commonly is branded as anti conservative recently observed this:
View attachment 733573

It is a challenging concept to poll as it means different things to different people

 

[Albertasaurus]

Pollara found the same, more explicitly. It is very very bad news. People don't think separation is a risk, but a big group of voters think it is a viable protest strategy. Brexit written all over it.
View attachment 733408

On the plus side, Pollara's numbers show a UCP defeat despite the UCP winning the popular vote by a lot. Pollara's results might show differently by choosing different boundaries for Calgary's borders. Some areas within the CMA, but outside of Calgary, are rural Alberta UCP strong, much stronger UCP base than 'other'. If you include those in 'Calgary', you get very very different results, and the race seems much much closer.
View attachment 733411

It'll be interesting to see how the polling changes if/when other parties crop up. For example, a resurgent Alberta Liberal Party or Alberta Party would be bad news for the NDP, and the UCP would similarly be in trouble if one or more separatist parties peel away votes. A nascent party gaining traction could be the factor that ultimately pulls one of the two main parties over the finish line.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

There looks like zero momentum for a third or fourth party. There isn't momentum for the NDP let alone a third party but this electors list thing... the wind could blow any way.

 

[trtcttc]

A pollster who commonly is branded as anti conservative recently observed this:
View attachment 733573

It also shows Alberta separation support is pretty strong in either direction, and there's few persuadable voters. Not sure for this specific poll, but I've seen in other polls, there's fairly low movement over time. In Quebec, the 21% can swing the results either way, whereas in Alberta, the underdecideds are lower than every other province and 0% responded DK/NR. I do think the question of the poll is too theoretical to represent an actual separation vote. Better off is only one part of this, there's also country loyalty, identity, risk, etc. that all factor into people's decisions.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I do think the question of the poll is too theoretical to represent an actual separation vote. Better off is only one part of this, there's also country loyalty, identity, risk, etc. that all factor into people's decisions.

I agree. It's one thing to say Alberta would be better off on its own, but another to actually vote for it, knowing your whole life could change due to Alberta separating.

I would bet that an actual separation vote would be somewhere around 25% voting to leave, 60% committed to staying and around 15% getting cold feet at the last minute.

 

[O-tac]

U.S., Russia interfering in Alberta separatist debate, study says | Globalnews.ca

Meddling by foreign adversaries threatens Canadian sovereignty and national security, the study found.

globalnews.ca

Now that we know the President of the UCP and another official were in a Zoom call demonstrating the Centurion Project database on April 16th and didn't alert the RCMP or Elections Alberta I think it's fair to say that the UCP is compromised and running a foreign interference agenda.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

U.S., Russia interfering in Alberta separatist debate, study says | Globalnews.ca

Meddling by foreign adversaries threatens Canadian sovereignty and national security, the study found.

globalnews.ca

Now that we know the President of the UCP and another official were in a Zoom call demonstrating the Centurion Project database on April 16th and didn't alert the RCMP or Elections Alberta I think it's fair to say that the UCP is compromised and running a foreign interference agenda.

Stupidity isn't a crime but ignorance is. I don't follow politics like I use to, so I don't know how far this is penetrating outside the leg bubble, but I still don't think this will turn people off unless some prominent (outside of JK) Alberta conservatives demand that those people be put out to pasture (to use a term those fake farmers in the UCP would be familiar with on the surface). I'll need to read up on Danielle's reaction to this to know which way the wind is blowing.

 

[darwink]

The seperatists claim to control enough of the UCP electoral district associations to cause a leadership review at any time, so Smith is keen to give them a path to express their frustrations as long as it doesn't involve kicking her out of office. All the library book stuff is at behest of the same broad group, Take Back Alberta and the Alberta Prosperity Project. The referendum items are the same.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

The seperatists claim to control enough of the UCP electoral district associations to cause a leadership review at any time, so Smith is keen to give them a path to express their frustrations as long as it doesn't involve kicking her out of office. All the library book stuff is at behest of the same broad group, Take Back Alberta and the Alberta Prosperity Project. The referendum items are the same.

This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.

Who cares though, I'm not personally affected. There's no reason why someone would want to search my name and come harass me at my house. F*ck you very much Jason Kenney for uniting the right.

 

[O-tac]

The issue isn't merely that you could be harassed by political parties. It opens you up to financial scamming, political persecution and poses a threat to abused women, police and judges and politicians. The separatists can also forge your signature for their petition if they want since the main thing Elections Alberta verifies is that your voter ID, address and e-mail matches. And they aren't allowed to verify if your name was used for a petition, or even remove it if it was since the UCP changed the rules. And even better than that, foreign adversaries probably have copies they've made to interfere with elections, to say nothing of Palantir and other fascist surveillance companies uploading that info to their databases. It's really bad.

As for Smith's response, there's been none beyond her claiming she can't comment since Elections Alberta is investigating. Bill 54 was passed by the UCP right before Centurion Group got the list and it prevented Elections Alberta from investigating this at the end of March by requiring an unnecessarily high standard to look into tips. A reporter notified them and they did nothing until the data was posted online.