I wasn't saying the UCP would win the future election, and that nothing could ever change that. But simply the fact that based on the polling available today, they are currently popular and would win today. And the idea that they are currently in a terrible spot and anyone supporting them must be bots is just not borne out.
Can things swing? absolutely, but the NDP needs something that brings people over. They haven't been able to make the teachers strike, the procurement scandal, redistricting, potential separation referendum stick. Carney's popularity is up in AB and that doesn't seem to have really moved the NDP numbers either.