[Full Metal Junkie]

This could be quite debilitating if Ukraine has the cruise missile capacity to get targets over a huge swathe of Russia

speaking of the cruise missile capacity:

Preliminary assessment of Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile

Ukraine’s defense company Fire Point unveiled its Flamingo long-range cruise missile on 18th August 2025 at a secret factory.

moderndiplomacy.eu

Ukraine’s defense company Fire Point unveiled its Flamingo long-range cruise missile on 18th August 2025 at a secret factory. Independent experts claim that with a payload of 1,150 kilograms (kgs), it is one of the heaviest missiles of its kind in the world. It can travel 3,000 kilometers (kms) and drop within 14 meters of its target.

Further Ukraine claims to have started producing Flamingo cruise missiles in large quantities. But Zelenskyy said that until Ukraine has hundreds of these missiles, all specifics won’t be made public. He said in winter, Ukraine intends to start producing these in large quantities. Presently, these are generated at a rate of roughly one per day. By October 2025, production is anticipated to increase to seven units per day. Fire Point acknowledges that they lack financial and human resources.

I really hope all these claims about Flamingo's capabilities and production rates are true. If so, we are about to see Ukraine finally be able to take the fight back to Russia on equal terms with powerful deep strikes. I do, however, worry that after a month after the announcement of Flamingo by Ukrainian officials we have not seen any strikes by it yet bar one field test, even though they are supposedly producing at least one a day. I really hope this is not another "ghost of Kyiv" disinformation operation designed to boost morale. I hope Flamingos are real and can't wait for them to take flight.

 

[Towered]

speaking of the cruise missile capacity:

Preliminary assessment of Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile

Ukraine’s defense company Fire Point unveiled its Flamingo long-range cruise missile on 18th August 2025 at a secret factory.

moderndiplomacy.eu

I really hope all these claims about Flamingo's capabilities and production rates are true. If so, we are about to see Ukraine finally be able to take the fight back to Russia on equal terms with powerful deep strikes. I do, however, worry that after a month after the announcement of Flamingo by Ukrainian officials we have not seen any strikes by it yet bar one field test, even though they are supposedly producing at least one a day. I really hope this is not another "ghost of Kyiv" disinformation operation designed to boost morale. I hope Flamingos are real and can't wait for them to take flight.

I can't wait to see Russian economic and military assets get systematically obliterated by these. Collapsing their resource income and capability to wage war will swiftly shift their tone...

NO CEASEFIRE - not until Russia is comprehensively defeated and are forced to de-occupy ALL Ukrainian lands.

 

[Admiral Beez]

NO CEASEFIRE - not until Russia is comprehensively defeated and are forced to de-occupy ALL Ukrainian lands.

That'll never happen. Crimea is lost.

 

[Collingwoodbuildinglover]

That'll never happen. Crimea is lost.

I actually think that there is a chance they could get Crimea back actually but that course of action is a long game approach first eliminate Russian air defense systems for medium range to short-range targets not s300s or s400 but Pantirs tors those type of systems so the only thing Russia has available for interceptions are multimillion dollar missiles after that basically start flooding the skies with drones You basically would turn the Russian's own game on their heads but don't use armed drones Just use cheap ones burn through all of their interceptors then go after all of their hydrocarbon industry because we all know Russia is a gas station with a government if you can call what the Kremlin is a government once you take out all of the hydrocarbons you don't even need to worry about hitting yellabuga or any of their other military facilities basically best thing Ukraine can do is hold the line where it is if they see opportunity to regain territory do so but don't stop until the Russian economy has been completely dismantled and they've made some pretty good progress already

 

[Collingwoodbuildinglover]

Another thing that is important is that Crimea is the war trophy so not taking it back until the very end is actually smarter You can degrade air defenses there give it 2 weeks off let them move in more air defenses take those out rinse and repeat

 

[afransen]

That'll never happen. Crimea is lost.

If Ukraine can strike the Kurch bridge with these cruise missiles, that will put a pretty big damper on logistics into Crimea. That leaves the land route closer to the front, which can also be disrupted by missile attacks.

 

[Collingwoodbuildinglover]

If Ukraine can strike the Kurch bridge with these cruise missiles, that will put a pretty big damper on logistics into Crimea. That leaves the land route closer to the front, which can also be disrupted by missile attacks.

This war will be won by basically making it untenable for one side or the other to get troops to the front to take territory as long as Ukraine has secondary backers IE NATO and other countries supporting it it will continue to have the financial support to get those systems Russia on the other hand is a little short on friends if somebody could get the Chinese to even take an approach of staying the hell out of this again we would probably see Russian lines thin out very fast and the situation at home wouldn't be much fun either

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

NO CEASEFIRE - not until Russia is comprehensively defeated and are forced to de-occupy ALL Ukrainian lands.

I don't think there is any hope that Ukraine can de-occupy all of its lost territories. Given the severe manpower shortages Ukraine is facing, they'd be lucky to de-occupy any of their lands by force. They are barely hanging onto the "porous" frontlines that currently exist. When you have military analysts like Rob Lee and Michael Kofman coming back from their trip to the frontlines and saying that Ukraine sometimes can only field 12 men to hold down a kilometer of the frontline in key Russian offensive areas - you know that their manpower is nearly exhausted.
With this reality on the ground, I don't think there is a military solution to de-occupying lost lands. For now. I am hoping for a hail marry of imploding Russian economy coupled with some sort of Prigozhin-style armed uprising (maybe from Chechens?) that will force Russia to GTFO from Ukraine of their own accord. But then again, I wouldn't bet on that as a likely scenario either.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

For those interested, here is a really good discussion with Rob Lee on how the current battlefield looks like in Ukraine, the battlefield tactics that result from the infantry-starved battlefield, and the future outlook. Highly recommend if you want to understand the situation on the ground.

 

[Admiral Beez]

For now. I am hoping for a hail marry of imploding Russian economy coupled with some sort of Prigozhin-style armed uprising (maybe from Chechens?) that will force Russia to GTFO from Ukraine of their own accord. But then again, I wouldn't bet on that as a likely scenario either.

A revolution in Belarus would shake things up.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine sometimes can only field 12 men to hold down a kilometer of the frontline in key Russian offensive areas - you know that their manpower is nearly exhausted.

My understanding is that most of the Ukrainian combat force is made up of the same 30-45 year old men who launched Ukraine’s defence in 2022. That has to be exhausting. Meanwhile, through its financial bonus scheme, Russia has a seemingly limitless flow of fresh men for its meat waves.