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My CPC incumbent hasn't done nearly as much door knocking in our area. Back in 2011, I actually met her when she was in the building. Now she couldn't be bothered to show up.
 
mjl08 said:
Agreed. I believe stronger NDP turf - based on the last by-election and provincial election - is the slightly less affluent Seaton Village as well as around Christie Pits and down through Harbord.
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The problem for the NDP though isn't so much that the Annex is unrepresentative and monolithically NDP (it isn't, check out the poll-by-poll results in 2008 where Dion's Green Shift had a lot of appeal along Walmer, Kendal, Howland etc.) but that 1/3 of the new riding of University-Rosedale includes the NDP dead-zone east of Avenue Rd.

Basically 2/3 of University-Rosedale is comprised of the most solid NDP territory from Trinity-Spadina and the other 1/3 is the north of Bloor section that used to be Toronto Centre. So it is a very polarized riding in terms of voting patterns. The NDP got 58% of the vote in the T-S part and 14% in the TC part in 2011.

In contrast, the transposed NDP vote was actually higher in Spadina-Fort York (49%) than than in University-Rosedale (44%). It has no Rosedale-type dead zones but overall NDP support is softer. Obviously Jack and Olivia had huge appeal there in 2011, and both the Liberal national campaign and local candidate were much weaker.
 
So here's my prediction for some inner Toronto seats: Craig Scott easily wins in Danforth, Andrew Cash and Peggy Nash also hang on but with much closer margins than last time (probably each in the 42-45% range, with the Liberals getting maybe 40% or so). So there will probably be 3 NDP MPs in the city. In the downtown seats, Chrystia Freeland edges out Jennifer Hollett and Adam Vaughan edges out Olivia Chow, but it won't be a Rosario Marchese-type wipeout and it wouldn't be surprising to see either win. Both will probably get in the 38-40% range, which won't be enough. Linda McQuaig, as much I'd like to see her elected, I think is a longshot now, and will get around 35-37%.
 
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My prediction for the 416 is that the Liberals take everything except Toronto-Danforth. If the NDP is really lucky, they might squeak by in Davenport or Parkdale-High Park, but they won't be lucky enough in both, and will likely lose both. Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale will not be blow-outs, but they won't be nail-bitters.

The Tories will lose all 8 of their current seats, and none of them will be that close.
 
I imagine most of Toronto will be red tomorrow, with the exception of Danforth and maybe Davenport and Parkdale-High Park.

I wouldn't completely write off the Conservatives in York Centre or the NDP in Scarborough North.
 
I, too, will not be surprised to see traditionally blue ridings turn red this evening. Will be tuned in.
 
Like everybody else, my Facebook feed is blowing up with "I Voted" posts but I've been surprised to read my Conservative friends ranting about how they want Harper gone. These are people who supported him the last couple of elections. I still see the odd Harper supporter but all of them are from wealthy families.

I'm not taking anything for granted but I get the feeling that we're going to see the Conservatives do a lot worse than the polls suggest. If traditional Conservatives can be motivated to speak out against the Conservative candidate, I expect to see many NDP voters rally behind Trudeau. If the turnout so far is any indication, it's going to be one for the record books — and people don't turn out in droves to vote for the status quo.
 
How do you do one of those posts on Facebook? I saw the pop up this morning, but now it is gone!
 
If you click on someone's link, it should bring you to the page that lets you do the I voted post.
 
The entire 416 has turned red at this point and the Liberals are looking like they are setting up to win a majority.
 
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