[ShonTron]

Russia only has one operating aircraft carrier. Perhaps Russia can buy back two of its carriers that are now theme parks in China?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_World

 

[lordmandeep]

However Russia has numerical superiority and its army is more then capable of beating the former soviet states.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

you'd think that with CNN having their headquarters in atlanta that they would have better coverage.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Russia's biggest challenge is one of demographics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

Russia's birthrate is falling dramatically and its death rate is rising, and its population is rapidly aging, while it is sitting on huge reserves of natural resources. Meanwhile Russia is surrounded by resource hungry neighbours who are rapidly growing in population.

Unlike Canada, which can live nicely being a resource rich, sparsely population country due to our massively strong neighbour to the south, Russia could soon be under threat on many fronts.

How would Russia, for instance, stop an invasion by China into Siberia? Perhaps Russia can threaten to use nukes, but China's got those too.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

Russia's biggest challenge is one of demographics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

Russia's birthrate is falling dramatically and its death rate is rising, and its population is rapidly aging, while it is sitting on huge reserves of natural resources. Meanwhile Russia is surrounded by resource hungry neighbours who are rapidly growing in population.

Unlike Canada, which can live nicely being a resource rich, sparsely population country due to our massively strong neighbour to the south, Russia could soon be under threat on many fronts.

How would Russia, for instance, stop an invasion by China into Siberia? Perhaps Russia can threaten to use nukes, but China's got those too.

why would china invade russia?

 

[Roy G Biv]

why would china invade russia?

I find that it's hard to supress one's inner-Risk fanboyism when discussing this conflict.

Update: Poland wants the US missle-defence shield they previously rejected, and Russia says no way, and that Poland should expect a strike if they get it.

This could get interesting.

 

[Admiral Beez]

why would china invade russia?

China is a dictatorship in need of living space and resources, with a strong military. Russia is a militarily weak, sparsely populated country with massive resources.

The last time Russia had a militarily strong, resource and space hungry dictatorship on its doorstep they were almost wiped out, losing an estimated 20 million people in the process. We can certainly argue that China today is not Germany of 1941, but I can guarantee you that there are Russian generals today looking southward at China with worry, while Chinese generals are looking northward with hunger.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

China is a dictatorship in need of living space and resources, with a strong military. Russia is a militarily weak, sparsely populated country with massive resources.

The last time Russia had a militarily strong, resource and space hungry dictatorship on its doorstep they were almost wiped out, losing an estimated 20 million people in the process. We can certainly argue that China today is not Germany of 1941, but I can guarantee you that there are Russian generals today looking southward at China with worry, while Chinese generals are looking northward with hunger.

i thought that with their commie history together that they would be friends.

i guess blood may be thicker than water but "insert natural resource here" is thicker than blood.

 

[Blixtein]

I find that it's hard to supress one's inner-Risk fanboyism when discussing this conflict.

Update: Poland wants the US missle-defence shield they previously rejected, and Russia says no way, and that Poland should expect a strike if they get it.

This could get interesting.

Putin would be insane to attack Poland. It's not 1939 anymore.

 

[Admiral Beez]

i thought that with their commie history together that they would be friends.

The history of the split can be read at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split

"During 1968, the Soviets massively increased their troop deployments along the Chinese border, particularly the border with Xinjiang, where a Turkic separatist movement could easily be fostered. Tensions along the border escalated until March 1969, when armed clashes broke out along the Ussuri River on Damansky Island, followed by more in August."

 

[kEiThZ]

Putin would be insane to attack Poland. It's not 1939 anymore.

He didnt say strike. He said they would be targeted. A strike would trigger an article 5 NATO response.

I'd be willing to bet that they are already targeted by nukes...probably started after their NATO entreaties. It's probably a good idea for them to accept the missile shield and ensure US commitment to their defence, to keep the Russians at bay.

 

[kEiThZ]

However Russia has numerical superiority and its army is more then capable of beating the former soviet states.

This is not necessarily an advantage. It only applies up to a point. Anybody who has served knows this. A common anecdote in the defence community, goes like this...."Sure, Burma has a million soldiers, but how many of them have shoes?"

Its better to have 10 trained guys than a hundred conscripts. Why do you think you hear of a battle where 10 western soldiers died in Afghanistan and they took out dozens of Taliban in the process. Indeed, in one battle that's now public knowledge, one Canadian sniper team of 4 guys took out 40 - 50 Taliban in 2 days.

I am willing to bet that Russia's military is a lot weaker than it looks. Relying on 17 year olds with 3 months military training to guarantee your security is not really a defence policy, unless your dealing with someone as puny as the Georgians.

That being said, testing that theory would cause a global calamity. They got their tit (Georgia) for tat (Kosovo). It's time to negotiate and call it even. The west has enough on its plate.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

He didnt say strike. He said they would be targeted. A strike would trigger an article 5 NATO response.

I'd be willing to bet that they are already targeted by nukes...probably started after their NATO entreaties. It's probably a good idea for them to accept the missile shield and ensure US commitment to their defence, to keep the Russians at bay.

but one of his top men did...

Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

By JIM HEINTZ – 6 hours ago

MOSCOW (AP) — A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.

The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations.

Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the United States says is aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations. Moscow, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force.

"Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent," Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax.

At a news conference earlier Friday, Nogovitsyn had reiterated Russia's frequently stated warning that placing missile-defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic would bring an unspecified military response. But his subsequent reported statement substantially stepped up a war of words.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski was quoted Friday by the Polish news agency PAP as saying that Poland is open to Russian inspections because it wants to give Moscow "tangible proof" that the planned base is not directed against Russia.

U.S. officials have said the timing of the deal was not meant to antagonize Russian leaders at a time when relations already are strained over the recent fighting between Russia and Georgia over the separatist Georgian region of South Ossetia.

Russian forces went deep into Georgia in the fighting, raising wide concerns that Russia could be seeking to occupy parts of its small, pro-U.S. neighbor, which has vigorously lobbied to join NATO, or even to force its government to collapse.

"I think the Russian behavior over the last several days is generally concerning not only to the United States but to all of our European allies," said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman, when asked about Russian threats against Poland as a result of the missile defense agreement.

He also suggested that earlier U.S. offers for broad cooperation with Moscow on the missile defense program may be reevaluated considering the latest developments.

Under the agreement that Warsaw and Washington reached Thursday, Poland will accept an American missile interceptor base.

Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile-armed "rogue states" like Iran. The Kremlin, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force and warns it will worsen tensions.

In an interview on Poland's news channel TVN24, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the United States agreed to help augment Poland's defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the Eastern European country.

He said the deal also includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations to come to each other's assistance "in case of trouble."

That clause appeared to be a direct reference to Russia.

Poland has all along been guided by fears of a newly resurgent Russia, an anxiety that has intensified with Russia's offensive in Georgia. In past days, Polish leaders said that fighting justified Poland's demands that it get additional security guarantees from Washington in exchange for allowing the anti-missile base on its soil.

"Simply the existence of this installation increases Poland's security," Polish President Lech Kaczynski said Friday.

Associated Press writers Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and Vanessa Gera in Warsaw, Poland contributed to this report.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ie3N_5xk8Z20qcSJG0MilftDpsLwD92IUT300

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

The history of the split can be read at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split

"During 1968, the Soviets massively increased their troop deployments along the Chinese border, particularly the border with Xinjiang, where a Turkic separatist movement could easily be fostered. Tensions along the border escalated until March 1969, when armed clashes broke out along the Ussuri River on Damansky Island, followed by more in August."

i learn something new everyday.

 

[kEiThZ]

but one of his top men did...

Yeah, and do you think the NATO Article 5 response come the other way would be worthwhile. That's just bluster. The Russians really don't want that radar....which by the way is US payback for refusing to renegotiate the ABM treaty. They will say anything to dissaude the Poles and Czech from helping out with that system especially now that development of US ABM systems is ahead of schedule and improving. The Russians don't want a system in place that would reduce the credibility of their deterrent. Hence, the threats towards Poland. Thankfully for Poland, they are protected by NATO, which doesn't have a "no first use" clause in its doctrine. The Russians are smart enough to know when they are playing with fire.