[1overcosc]

It's possible. Liberals as a whole are doing okay; Wynne specifically is the person who is bearing the brunt of public outrage. It'll be an interesting election; I expect a minority myself.

I would have said a Liberal minority as the most likely result, but I don't see the NDP doing well at all; I can see them reduced to less than a dozen seats. With 122 seats in the legislature, that would mean the Liberal-PC margin would have to be very tight for a minority to exist.

My best guess at this point for seat count in 2018 is something like 65 Liberal, 50 PC, 7 NDP--a very thin Liberal majority, brought about by a collapse in the NDP even as the PCs gain seats.

 

[Rainforest]

Adding back lawrence east will cost 200 or 300 million. If SmartTrack's scope is reduced from Steeles down to Kennedy, it might be able to pay for a station at Lawrence East. I hope you're right. This would be a great outcome.

I would hope it will not cost that much. $300 million is a cost of a major terminal station with a large bus terminal.

When they considered underground alignment of ECLRT at Leslie, they projected a station to cost just $90 million. A subway station would cost more than that because it is longer; but length is not the only factor and some cost elements are common for a subway station and an underground LRT station. So, I hope that a Lawrence East station does not need to cost more than $150 million.

If the creek near Lawrence & McCowan is such a big deal, then they can choose the Brimley route, instead of McCowan. The station location at Lawrence & Brimley is less desirable, and is futher from the majority of hospital buildings; but it will still provide a connection to the busy Lawrence East bus.

 

[kEiThZ]

Not really, but as TheTigerMaster pointed out, the economic indicators are looking very good for Ontario right now. It's hard to kick out a party in good economic times.

Don't know what economic indicators you guys are looking at. We're not as bad as some other provinces. But I doubt the average person is going to say the economy is doing great. And Wynne is certainly vulnerable on the middle class squeeze, once things like higher hydro rates and proposed ORPP contributions come into the discussion.

Patrick Brown has his own issues though. That said, I find his pivot on climate change to be very interesting. I wonder if that means he'll consider leading on transit as well. If the tories are smart, congestion and transit is actually an issue they can run on and win in the GTA. After all, those issues won't be much improved by election time. And he can claim the Liberals didn't do much in a decade and a half. He just has to commit to a plan that's a little broader than the Liberals. And there is actually scope for that.

I can even see transit becoming a nice wedge issue for the Tories. For example, if you think you can't win seats in Toronto anyway, promise to upload the subway network and make it accessible to 905 (YSNE). Or maybe even consider winning over some of Toronto with a pledge to build the DRL as quickly as possible. Even Smart Track can be a vote getter in say Unionville or Brampton ("I'm going to extend subway-like service to you for a TTC fare."). Toronto may be lost but transit can be used to win a lot of votes in the 905.

The biggest mistake the tories ever made was thinking of transit as some left wing pet project. In reality, keeping the trains running on time has been the hallmark of competent governments everywhere. We'll see if Patrick Brown is smart enough to pick up on this....disregarding the Mussolini association of that reference....

 

[1overcosc]

Patrick Brown has his own issues though. That said, I find his pivot on climate change to be very interesting. I wonder if that means he'll consider leading on transit as well. If the tories are smart, congestion and transit is actually an issue they can run on and win in the GTA. After all, those issues won't be much improved by election time. And he can claim the Liberals didn't do much in a decade and a half. He just has to commit to a plan that's a little broader than the Liberals. And there is actually scope for that.

I can even see transit becoming a nice wedge issue for the Tories. For example, if you think you can't win seats in Toronto anyway, promise to upload the subway network and make it accessible to 905 (YSNE). Or maybe even consider winning over some of Toronto with a pledge to build the DRL as quickly as possible. Even Smart Track can be a vote getter in say Unionville or Brampton ("I'm going to extend subway-like service to you for a TTC fare."). Toronto may be lost but transit can be used to win a lot of votes in the 905.

The biggest mistake the tories ever made was thinking of transit as some left wing pet project. In reality, keeping the trains running on time has been the hallmark of competent governments everywhere. We'll see if Patrick Brown is smart enough to pick up on this....disregarding the Mussolini association of that reference....

Exactly. The path to victory for the PCs is to moderate and be more appealing to urban voters. And transit is a good way to do that.

A scenario in which Brown becomes premier is probably a scenario in which Brown embraces transit... so people on UT can stop worrying about provincial politics with respect to GTA transit.

 

[ssiguy2]

I think Tory has done a lot of good for transit in Toronto.

Whether you agree with ST or not, he brought forth the logic of using existing infrastructure for Torontonians which seems to have escaped every other administration. He has put Metrolinx into a corner and made it clear that GO's idea that it is a 905-only service that just happens to go thru Toronto is no longer acceptable. Whether ST or RER he has changed the conversation that GO must now serve Torontonians themselves.

He has also put them on the hot seat by ST setting the tone that RER must be affordable and preferable a TTC fare. Tory has created an environment where if ST is "officially" stopped, Torontonians will demand ST fares or they will refuse RER.

His idea of extending Eglinton to UTS and Renforth is a good one as is the subway to STC with no/fewer stops.

Tory has created a standard expectation in term of service and fares and by doing so Metrolinx knows that only a RER service in the city with the same parameters will be accepted.

 

[Palma]

I think Tory has done a lot of good for transit in Toronto.

Whether you agree with ST or not, he brought forth the logic of using existing infrastructure for Torontonians which seems to have escaped every other administration. He has put Metrolinx into a corner and made it clear that GO's idea that it is a 905-only service that just happens to go thru Toronto is no longer acceptable. Whether ST or RER he has changed the conversation that GO must now serve Torontonians themselves.

He has also put them on the hot seat by ST setting the tone that RER must be affordable and preferable a TTC fare. Tory has created an environment where if ST is "officially" stopped, Torontonians will demand ST fares or they will refuse RER.

His idea of extending Eglinton to UTS and Renforth is a good one as is the subway to STC with no/fewer stops.

Tory has created a standard expectation in term of service and fares and by doing so Metrolinx knows that only a RER service in the city with the same parameters will be accepted.

now only if could get 5 min frequencies

 

[gweed123]

I just mentioned this in another thread. Liberals are tied with PCs, and the Liberals haven't even begun hammering Brown on social issues yet. When they do, it'll be game over for the PCs, unless they make a big ideological shift to the centre.

It also should be noted to that economic indicators are strong, going into the 2018 election. Unemployment is at the lowest level since the 90s, debt to GDP ratio is decreasing, the budget is well on it's way to being balanced. This'll make it very difficult for the PCs to say the Liberals are mismanaging the economy.

A balanced budget is the biggest thing the Liberals can do to dispel that "you can't manage the economy and balance a budget" talking point. I think how the economy performs leading up to 2018 will determine if the Liberals win or lose, not social issues. If the economy continues to recover and the budget gets balanced, it will be a much easier path to victory for the Liberals than if it dips back down again and we're still running a deficit.

I can even see transit becoming a nice wedge issue for the Tories. For example, if you think you can't win seats in Toronto anyway, promise to upload the subway network and make it accessible to 905 (YSNE). Or maybe even consider winning over some of Toronto with a pledge to build the DRL as quickly as possible. Even Smart Track can be a vote getter in say Unionville or Brampton ("I'm going to extend subway-like service to you for a TTC fare."). Toronto may be lost but transit can be used to win a lot of votes in the 905.

History has shown that the Tories aren't scared of a game of chicken with municipalities when it comes to who pays for what and who has control of what (see: all of Mike Harris' tenure). The Liberals would get roasted if they proposed full or partial uploads (full = entire system, partial = RT only), but the Tories may be able to do it.

Honestly, if the PCs had a serious proposal to create a single region-wide transit entity with the proper revenue streams in place to adequately fund it, I would really consider giving them my vote.

 

[Edward Skira]

1943 to 1985. Sorry, had to straighten that out

The PCs of the John Robarts and Bill Davis era were moderates who formed "big tents" of support. In that sense, the Liberals are the modern equivalent of the PCs from those days.

And in power from 1995 to 2003.

 

[Tewder]

Honestly, if the PCs had a serious proposal to create a single region-wide transit entity with the proper revenue streams in place to adequately fund it, I would really consider giving them my vote.

I'm just not sure what the Liberals have achieved, they are in their 13th year of power in Ontario. It's sad to say that their real big legacy is scandal. It's sad to say that we keep voting for this, for lethargy and scandal because of fear mongering.

 

[Edward Skira]

I'm just not sure what the Liberals have achieved, they are in their 13th year of power in Ontario. It's sad to say that their real big legacy is scandal. It's sad to say that we keep voting for this, for lethargy and scandal because of fear mongering.

You've got to be joking. Look at the massive transit expansion we are experience with a lot more coming. Compare that to the guys that filled in holes that had already been excavated.

 

[Adjei]

I'm just not sure what the Liberals have achieved, they are in their 13th year of power in Ontario. It's sad to say that their real big legacy is scandal. It's sad to say that we keep voting for this, for lethargy and scandal because of fear mongering.

If the Liberals are so scandalous as you say, then it should be real easy to defeat them. Shows how weak the opposition are if they haven't been able to do it for 13 years now.

 

[Palma]

You've got to be joking. Look at the massive transit expansion we are experience with a lot more coming. Compare that to the guys that filled in holes that had already been excavated.

and all of it has happened when except lately. They were near the end of their second term before anything started. They have had to sell Hydro One partially to help pay for transit. Without the billions they wasted all this transit could have been built by now. Finch and Sheppard LRT was to be up and running were they not. And one of the reason Crosstown stations did not start construction while tunneling was going on was lack of money and wanting to spread the money out. Thats where the billions would have come in. If not for those scandals I bet they would not be spending all this money on transit. It was the only thing to get people to forget the scandals

 

[Palma]

If the Liberals are so scandalous as you say, then it should be real easy to defeat them. Shows how weak the opposition are if they haven't been able to do it for 13 years now.

well with Hudak no but with Brown i bet yes. The Crosstown is safe and Finch LRT will be also. Its the RER and SmartTrack that might be problematic but again RER is for suburbians so he will not cancel those. And if Wynne says deficit will be eliminated, then Brown won't have to take drastic measures to cancel transit

 

[Palma]

well with Hudak no but with Brown i bet yes. The Crosstown is safe and Finch LRT will be also. Its the RER and SmartTrack that might be problematic but again RER is for suburbians so he will not cancel those. And if Wynne says deficit will be eliminated, then Brown won't have to take drastic measures to cancel transit.

Could the UPX line be the SmartTrack with the new added 7-8 stations?/QUOTE]

 

[Adjei]

well with Hudak no but with Brown i bet yes. The Crosstown is safe and Finch LRT will be also. Its the RER and SmartTrack that might be problematic but again RER is for suburbians so he will not cancel those. And if Wynne says deficit will be eliminated, then Brown won't have to take drastic measures to cancel transit

Ok Brown is the new saviour to deliver us from the evil Liberals.