[APTA-2048]

Legault being a tyrant.........

The evidence does not correspond to the action.

Honestly, the most useless thing might be the curfew.

I don't think it provides the help that would be worth the hassle of enforcement.

I will say, though, ICU numbers in Ontario are a little concerning. Catching up to 2nd wave numbers.

 

[Northern Light]

Honestly, the most useless thing might be the curfew.

I don't think it provides the help that would be worth the hassle of enforcement.

I will say, though, ICU numbers in Ontario are a little concerning. Catching up to 2nd wave numbers.

There is no scientific evidence in support of a curfew; and in fact; the evidence such as it is, leans the other way.

Because people will simply gather in one fashion or another (shopping, work etc.) within the time available, meaning the same number of people in less space which equals increased crowding.

Its utterly foolish.

****

As to ICU numbers..........let's look at the graph courtesy Dr. Jennifer Kwan MD:

That's not setting off any alarm bells for me..........at least not yet.

Lets also look at hospitalizations:

 

[gabe]

There is no scientific evidence in support of a curfew; and in fact; the evidence such as it is, leans the other way.

Because people will simply gather in one fashion or another (shopping, work etc.) within the time available, meaning the same number of people in less space which equals increased crowding.

Its utterly foolish.

****

As to ICU numbers..........let's look at the graph courtesy Dr. Jennifer Kwan MD:


View attachment 372328

That's not setting off any alarm bells for me..........at least not yet.

Lets also look at hospitalizations:

View attachment 372329

Well there is a lot of unknowns at this point. Across Canada hospitals are dealing with a shortage of staff. An ICU bed is only called that if there is a qualified team to manage it. ICU beds are useless without qualified staff. It should be public knowledge to know what those numbers are.

 

[Northern Light]

Well there is a lot of unknowns at this point. Across Canada hospitals are dealing with a shortage of staff. An ICU bed is only called that if there is a qualified team to manage it. ICU beds are useless without qualified staff. It should be public knowledge to know what those numbers are.

All you had to do was ask.......

Original Data Source:

Dataset - Ontario Data Catalogue

covid-19.ontario.ca

Beds available as listed by CCO (Critical Care Ontario) are considered to be staffed and ready.

 

[Bayer]

All you had to do was ask.......



Original Data Source:

Dataset - Ontario Data Catalogue

covid-19.ontario.ca

Beds available as listed by CCO (Critical Care Ontario) are considered to be staffed and ready.

Jonathan Kay is not the first person I would ask; anyway, this is just the beginning. January and February won't be pleasant for anyone needing medical care in this province.

 

[Northern Light]

Jonathan Kay is not the first person I would ask; anyway, this is just the beginning. January and February won't be pleasant for anyone needing medical care in this province.

I did cite the original data, which is from the government of Ontario.

The data is not in dispute.

Mr. Kay was merely an observant of it, not postulating anything novel.

*****

I'm all about the science, on this and every other subject.

Facts, supported by evidence which can be corroborated.

 

[gabe]

All you had to do was ask.......

View attachment 372336

Original Data Source:

View attachment 372337

Dataset - Ontario Data Catalogue

covid-19.ontario.ca

Beds available as listed by CCO (Critical Care Ontario) are considered to be staffed and ready.

That's the 29th. Unless you have a crystal ball, we have no idea what the ICU will look like in the weeks to come. Hospitals have dealt with shortages this entire pandemic.

 

[Northern Light]

That's the 29th. Unless you have a crystal ball, we have no idea what the ICU will look like in the weeks to come. Hospitals have dealt with shortages this entire pandemic.

The 29th is yesterday, which is the most recent data available.

No one has a crystal ball; the most you can do is extrapolate trendlines forward.

You seem to start from your opinion, then consider evidence only if it supports your thesis; and dismiss the rest.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Extrapolating trendlines for things that have gone exponential is a dicey thing, at best. The experiences in UK - which is somewhat ahead of us in the curve, offers some clues:

The number of people in England hospitalized with COVID-19 increased to 10,462 on Wednesday from 7,366 on Dec. 24, government figures show. Wednesday’s number was the highest since March 1. The figure is still well below the peak of 34,336 recorded on Jan. 18.

U.K. health officials build up hospital capacity to prepare for Omicron surge - National | Globalnews.ca

The United Kingdom reported a record 183,037 confirmed new COVID-19 infections on Wednesday, 32 per cent more than the previous day.

globalnews.ca

We shall see when and where it peaks. In the meantime, the NHS seems to be acting with more prudence than we are.

AoD

 

[DirectionNorth]

Jonathan Kay is not the first person I would ask; anyway, this is just the beginning. January and February won't be pleasant for anyone needing medical care in this province.

That's the 29th. Unless you have a crystal ball, we have no idea what the ICU will look like in the weeks to come. Hospitals have dealt with shortages this entire pandemic.

The UK's hospitalizations are trending down. They had Omicron earlier than us.

Pro-lockdown people are shifting goalposts. First, it's "We don't know anything about hospitalization", then "South Africa is a young and poor country", then "We don't know the effects of vaccinations on Omicron", and now it's "It's not happened elsewhere but it's going to happen here for an unspecified reason."

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The UK's hospitalizations are trending down. They had Omicron earlier than us.

Pro-lockdown people are shifting goalposts. First, it's "We don't know anything about hospitalization", then "South Africa is a young and poor country", then "We don't know the effects of vaccinations on Omicron", and now it's "It's not happened elsewhere but it's going to happen here for an unspecified reason."
View attachment 372345

See the Global News piece above. Also:

UK: Daily new hospital admissions for COVID-19

Hospital data is available for individual UK nations, and English data by NHS Region. Figures are not comparable between nations as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations only include confirmed cases.

ourworldindata.org

I don't believe that's trending down. What your data has shown is variations in the plateau period between what, August to late December, which from the latest data is clearly something that hasn't held.

AoD

 

[DirectionNorth]

See the Global News piece above. Also:

View attachment 372348

UK: Daily new hospital admissions for COVID-19

Hospital data is available for individual UK nations, and English data by NHS Region. Figures are not comparable between nations as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations only include confirmed cases.

ourworldindata.org

I don't believe that's trending down. What your data has shown is variations in the plateau period between what, August to late December, which from the latest data is clearly something that hasn't held.

AoD

Your data seems different than mine ... their restrictions are also much laxer (is that a word?)

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Your data seems different than mine ... their restrictions are also much laxer.

Your data ended on December 24th (and I couldn't even tell if there are data quality issues on the last two days of that chart - if I had to guess, I'd think it's delayed reporting). And what does hospitalization has to do with restrictions? The latter should only affect the infection rate, not the rate of hospitalization among those who had been infected (generally speaking).

AoD

 

[Globulon]

Travis Kann - Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Communications to the Premier of Ontario.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476265646891671552

 

[Northern Light]

Your data seems different than mine ... their restrictions are also much laxer (is that a word?)

Your data ended on December 24th (and I couldn't even tell if there are data quality issues on the last two days of that chart - if I had to guess, I'd think it's delayed reporting). And what does hospitalization has to do with restrictions? The latter should only affect the infection rate, not the rate of hospitalization among those who had been infected (generally speaking).

AoD

King of research on hand to help...........LOL

Lets look at this to start:

For clarity:

Data current to Dec. 28th.

Note that that this is people in hospital who happen to test positive for Covid (or have within the preceding 14 days), not people admitted due to symptoms from Covid.

****

Now let's examine more closely:

Based on data current to Dec 21st:

The most up-to-date NHS data show that on December 21, there were 6,245 beds occupied by coronavirus patients in English hospitals - an increase of 259 from the previous week.


But within that increase, just 45 patients were admitted because of the virus, with the remaining 214 in hospital for other conditions but having also tested positive - so called “incidental Covid” admissions.

The above from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/

***

Lets further note the differences between the data offered by DN and AoD

The former is for the UK, the latter is for England.

Not the same data set.

****

One can play with the numbers, depending on what you choose to include........

That said, what can be factually assessed is that in England, as compared with early November, about 50% more patients who are admitted are testing positive for Covid.

However..........the total number of admissions is up substantially less than that............reflecting both hospital-acquired infections, and what the UK are terming 'incidental Covid infection' where that is not the primary reason for the patient's admission to care.

****

Put simply, the evidence suggests cases are spreading, but serious illness, not so much.

I'm not going to suggest that will not change...........but the current evidence does not support that conclusion, in the UK, best as I can discern.