|
|
|
- Thread starter TheTigerMaster
- Start date
PL1
Senior Member
Could you please post a summary when posting a link? I generally don't click to websites
Northern Light
Superstar
PL1
Senior Member
I saw the April 1, but it's not yet, so I assumed it wasn't April Fools... Joke's on me
nfitz
Superstar
urbanclient
Senior Member
As the topic of Line 2 SSE being delayed til 2033 has made the news, I thought I'd post my predictions on when various Metrolinx/TTC projects would actually open. Fall = second half of year. Some of these are wild guesses, others have more factual basis.
Line 10 Hurontario -Fall 2028 earliest, likely 2029 (early utility works 2017, 2020 construction start)
Line 5 Western Extension likely Fall 2033 earliest (2021 start)
Line 2 Extension to Sheppard McCowan likely Fall 2033 earliest, 2034 more likely. (2021 start)
Line 3 Ontario Line likely 2035 (2021/2022 start, but first TBM dig only started in 2026)
Line 1 Yonge North likely Fall 2035 earliest, assuming nothing goes wrong like in SSE. 12 years average from above would mean 2037+
-----------------------------
Hamilton LRT, Fall 2035 or later. (14km)
Line 7 Eglinton East, Fall 2040 Earliest, likely cancelled or changed.
Line 4 Sheppard Eastern extension to Sheppard and McCowan, Fall 2042 earliest
GO RER / Expansion Lakeshore West and Lakeshore East, 2040 earliest.
Line 10 Hurontario -Fall 2028 earliest, likely 2029 (early utility works 2017, 2020 construction start)
Line 5 Western Extension likely Fall 2033 earliest (2021 start)
Line 2 Extension to Sheppard McCowan likely Fall 2033 earliest, 2034 more likely. (2021 start)
Line 3 Ontario Line likely 2035 (2021/2022 start, but first TBM dig only started in 2026)
Line 1 Yonge North likely Fall 2035 earliest, assuming nothing goes wrong like in SSE. 12 years average from above would mean 2037+
-----------------------------
Hamilton LRT, Fall 2035 or later. (14km)
- 10km Line 6 FW took over 6 years from 2019 to 2025
- 18km Line 10 Hurontario will take 8+ years from 2020 to 2028
- “The [alliance] development phase will last 18-24 months” means construction will start in 2028
- "It is to be noted at this point that to allow each utility company to carry out individual re-locations of their plant within a cohesive and intense schedule will not be possible and will inevitably extend the construction period beyond 6 years." Source
- From Spring 2023, we're now 3 years past that with little to no progress:
Line 7 Eglinton East, Fall 2040 Earliest, likely cancelled or changed.
Line 4 Sheppard Eastern extension to Sheppard and McCowan, Fall 2042 earliest
GO RER / Expansion Lakeshore West and Lakeshore East, 2040 earliest.
- January 2038 is the scheduled "energization" according to the Metrolinx calendar, tack on 1 year of testing and commissioning, and convert to the Gregorian calendar, and we're easily at 2040.
Last edited:
Northern Light
Superstar
These are reasonable guesses in my judgement (though they shouldn't be).
One note here, YNSE will NOT be allowed to open prior to full operation of the Ontario Line. So the latter is deterministic in the timing.
This one I think we can and should do better. The tunnel is the complex bit, and key is how fast that work gets underway, but I'm hopeful we can be a few years faster than your prediction.
***
No comment on the rest.
drum118
Superstar
Unless you have taken a close look in person of things, follow various issues, you are pure guessing. You are a sidewalk supervisor with no background knowledge of construction, planning and etc.
I know for a fact that Hurontario LRT will open in 2028 as the major construction will be completed by year end. Still have to finish rebuilding various sections of the roads, repaving the corridor, build 24 miles of sidewalks, land scaping that will be done in 2027. Testing start this summer for the test bed area and will expand as more track is ready for testing.. The city stated to all utilities companies in early 2010's that they must plan for future work beyond 2024 to deal with growth for 10-15 years beyond 2024 as the corridor will not be allow to see any construction in the corridor.
Waterfront East Rapid Line, Fall 2040 earliest will be early 2030, but not all of it under the $3 billion funding that includes rebuilding QQE that was supposed to be by Waterfront Toronto cost. In the past I have said 2035+ based on the lack of funds since 2014. I just stated any expansion on Commissioner St to deal with the Broadview extension is 2040-50 subject to new funding. Follow that thread for more info as it not the place here for it or any LRT lines as well subways.
Hamilton LRT will happen before 2035 since ML has learn a lesson from Line 6 and Hurontario problems. Cannot use line 5 as it was a tunneling issue than a surface one.
The whole Lakeshore corridor issue is lack of funds with Union Station eating a huge chunk of it as well URC alone with the OL. Dealing with a live corridor is not that simple and more time consuming to do the work safety.
urbanclient
Senior Member
I have largely agreed with you on this before, my push back being that you never know what unforeseen circumstances pop up. I did not mention Line 5 Eglinton's issues, but now that you bring it up, much of what delayed Eglinton was the CBTC / "signalling". Hurontario uses a Hitachi CBTC system.
I don't have faith they'll finish testing & commissioning in 8-12 months as is common elsewhere.
Major civil construction for Line 6 was completed well in advance of its eventual opening. There were 14 months of "testing and commissioning" before opening.
IMO this delay potential after construction completion applies to both Hurontario and Hamilton. https://www.metrolinx.com/en/news/all-stations-and-stops-complete-along-the-finch-west-lrt
----------------------------------------
The corridor for Hamilton is often narrower, more densely populated, AFAIK older for both above and below ground. Also the back to back turns at Dundurn plaza. Probably the most crucial road junction(?) in Hamilton. I tacked on an extra year to 2034 so 2035. 6 years for construction, construction start 2028. Is that still too overly pessimistic?
-----------------------------------------
Also I agree, the farther in the future my predictions are, the less accurate they'll be. 2040+ are wild guesses. For Waterfront East, I'd amend my prediction as soon as contracts go out, and potentially again when major construction starts. Given what was said in spring 2023 (see previous post), full opening would be 2035 to 2038 as of now. I don't see it being impossible for a 2 year delay to happen for a City-led project, especially given the (relative) complexity of the Union loop reconstruction.
The Line 1 TYSSE was delayed from July 2015 to December 2017.
Is this something we know for sure, or just speculation? Also, the consortia members are (somewhat) different for each project?
----------------
I'm not one to tout third-hand sources as being reliable, so these opinions are my own. Even second-hand sources can be occasionally wrong.
For some of those projects, I've looked at when certain milestones were supposed to be hit. The obvious one is Line 2 SSE. Before today, anyone could've done some napkin math on how fast the TBM was moving given known dates and the progress by those dates. My logic is: every day the TBM is delayed = a day the opening is delayed. I think 2034 is more likely at this point.
May 4, 2026 (other progress reports came out earlier too): "TBM Diggy Scardust, operated by Strabag, has completed over 4km of the 6.9km tunnel"
https://www.tunnelsandtunnelling.co...xtension-tunnelling-passes-halfway-milestone/
March, 2026:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/making-headway-scarborough-metrolinx-yi0ze/
October, 2021: "The estimated completion date for tunnelling is 2024."
https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...Upcoming-work-at-extraction-shaft-October.pdf
Last edited:
nfitz
Superstar
He said these are his predictions? Why so rude to point out that predictions is guessing?
Reasonable, though depressing, predictions. Line 7 seems optimistc. The criteria that the Ontario line has to open before YNSE (Line 1) ends the day it becomes politically expedient for the Premier of Ontario to open YNSE first.
Northern Light
Superstar
No, it does not.
Line 1 will not have sufficient capacity to carry the extra load w/o the Ontario Line in place.
taylortbb
New Member
Because a leader has never ordered something be done despite the consequences? Even when everyone around them sees immediate problematic consequences of a decision?
Northern Light
Superstar
You can believe what you wish. My track record speaks for itself. It will not open first.
nfitz
Superstar
It doesn't. But it does have sufficient capacity for everyone in possible flip-riding north of Steeles to board - and even get a seat.
I don't think any of us can predict what terrible decision a politically-challenged Premier might make. Let's say we were on track for a fall 2030 opening of both lines (yeah, I know - more likely 2035 - this is just hypothetical)
As it stands now, the next provincial election must be held by April 2030. I can 100% see a Premier pushing the Line 1 extension to open in March 2030, and not giving a crap at what issues that might cause for a few months, if it can win him a 905 seat, but he doesn't have hope on North York/Old Toronto seats.
It very probably (99.9%) won't. And it shouldn't. But I don't know what a track record has to do with anything about predicting what a moron at Queens Park might do - or contract that they may rip up at huge expense.
So many things have happened in the last decade that I thought impossible, in terms of political decisions and pronouncements.
But we are well into angel on pins territory here. It was an aside in my comment agreeing with your timeframe (I notice that you focus exclusively on the aside, not the big picture - it's like you take this personally or something)
Another aside would be me pointing out that if construction at Lawrence East station has underestimated the upwards forces at the station, 50 metres below Lawrence, and the entire station box shoots into the area as if from a fire hydrant (yeah, overly dramatic) that the SSE will be further delayed - which doesn't question your track record.
More realistic are events that HAVE caused significant delays to subway/metro projects/operations like 7/7, Hurricane Sandy, Covid, War, 9/11, recessions, depressions, and politics.
Which is all very depressing.
Last edited:
Sauga89
Active Member
Stratford station has been digitally rebranded on GO Transit's website.
Before (via the Wayback Machine) and After:
Before (via the Wayback Machine) and After: