[Admiral Beez]

We might be self-interested.............

Self interest drives everything. Quebec just needs sufficient inducements. For example, Quebec could demand that its companies get to build the pipeline from Ontario to the water, and likely more.

It's not as if Quebec doesn't have involvement in oil and gas already, such as Quebec's Énergir partnering with Alberta on the Trans Québec & Maritimes Pipeline (TQM).

 

[EBT]

The question of how to get Canada's oil and gas to export markets (other than the United States) is a topic I have been thinking about recently. Pipelines east and west are the ultimate solution, but they take time. From my research I discovered that up to 450,000 barrels a day of Alberta crude is transported to the US Gulf of Mexico coast because of pipeline constraints. Why aren't we sending this oil to east and west coast ports for exports to other foreign markets? To put this amount into perspective the newly opened transmountain pipeline is pumping about 800,000 barrels a day to China now so this would represent about a 50% increase of exports to non-American markets. The ultimate goal for Canada should be to export the crude oil that we cannot consume to markets other than the United States. We need to cut the Americans off completely.

Ship 400,000 barrels a day of crude through Quebec to the east coast and the Quebecers will be clamoring for pipelines. They know all too well how rail is a horrible even disastrous way to transport oil.

 

[wopchop]

There is a reason energy companies are sending via pipeline to the Gulf, rather than on rail to the East Coast, and the reason is that there is no economic case for the latter vs the former. It is going South because refiners are buying it. There is also no refinery in New Brunswick that can process it.

This isn't SimCity. The government doesn't just say we are shipping 400,000 barrels to New Brunswick instead of Texas.

 

[afransen]

Self interest drives everything. Quebec just needs sufficient inducements. For example, Quebec could demand that its companies get to build the pipeline from Ontario to the water, and likely more.

It's not as if Quebec doesn't have involvement in oil and gas already, such as Quebec's Énergir partnering with Alberta on the Trans Québec & Maritimes Pipeline (TQM).

Could give a big part of the contract to AtkinsRealis (aka SNC Lavalin).

 

[Admiral Beez]

Carney seems to be indicating that massive energy investments are coming, especially targeting exports to non-USA markets, which can only mean pipelines and ports. Even the cold heart of Danielle Smith has to be somewhat warmed.

“It’s a critical time for our country. The world’s certainly more divided and dangerous and the imperative of making Canada an energy superpower in all respects has never been greater. We will do everything we can at the federal government level to support those partnerships,” he said.

Mark Carney signals ‘the imperative of making Canada an energy superpower’ on eve of first ministers’ meeting

Carney wants to fast-track "nation-building" infrastructure projects and eliminate interprovincial trade barriers to strengthen he Canadian economy.

www.thestar.com

Paywall free: https://archive.is/tXHs3

 

[guavadelic]

Carney seems to be indicating that massive energy investments are coming, especially targeting exports to non-USA markets, which can only mean pipelines and ports. Even the cold heart of Danielle Smith has to be somewhat warmed.

“It’s a critical time for our country. The world’s certainly more divided and dangerous and the imperative of making Canada an energy superpower in all respects has never been greater. We will do everything we can at the federal government level to support those partnerships,” he said.

Carney was non-committal on providing federal funding when asked earlier this week in the interview with CBC. Mostly committing to altering permitting processes to expedite approvals.

 

[lenaitch]

Carney was non-committal on providing federal funding when asked earlier this week in the interview with CBC. Mostly committing to altering permitting processes to expedite approvals.

I think he has to keep his cards close to his vest at this point. He's getting a lot of asks. Off the top of my head, three LNG terminals on Hudson's Bay. He's like a mall Santa right now.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think he has to keep his cards close to his vest at this point. He's getting a lot of asks. Off the top of my head, three LNG terminals on Hudson's Bay. He's like a mall Santa right now.

The Trudeau-purchased trans mountain pipe is still under utilized.

 

[afransen]

The Trudeau-purchased trans mountain pipe is still under utilized.

It's projected to be at capacity in the near future. There is some scope to increase its capacity with some more powerful pumps, and to increase throughput by dredging the channel to the port to allow larger tankers to be loaded.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It's projected to be at capacity in the near future. There is some scope to increase its capacity with some more powerful pumps, and to increase throughput by dredging the channel to the port to allow larger tankers to be loaded.

It does however make me wonder about the global appetite for Canadian oil and gas. If we expand the TCP and build a LNG terminal at Churchill, will we find the customers willing to pay the prices needed to generate sufficient ROI?

 

[afransen]

It does however make me wonder about the global appetite for Canadian oil and gas. If we expand the TCP and build a LNG terminal at Churchill, will we find the customers willing to pay the prices needed to generate sufficient profit?

I think this is a fair question. I would prefer it be private capital that takes that gamble.

 

[EBT]

It does however make me wonder about the global appetite for Canadian oil and gas. If we expand the TCP and build a LNG terminal at Churchill, will we find the customers willing to pay the prices needed to generate sufficient ROI?

An LNG Terminal at Churchill (or Fort Nelson) would have no problem finding customers in Europe. It would have big advantages over LNG from Qatar or Louisiana:

• Shorter shipping routes – Hudson Bay LNG could reach Europe in 10 days, compared to 17+ days from Qatar.
• Cold climate efficiency – Lower cooling costs make Canadian LNG 15–20% cheaper to produce.
• Growing demand – Europe is seeking alternatives to Russian gas, creating a strong market for Canadian LNG.

The limiting factor is the short shipping season which is currently from July to January with icebreaker support. With more icebreakers support, it could be extended year-round, and with global warming, ice thickness is decreasing. The shorter shipping routes combined with cold climate efficiency would more than offset the cost of icebreaker support. Also, Europe replenishes its LNG reserves during the summer, so the truncated shipping season should not be a big factor. We face this issue with wheat exports and other commodity exports.

Given the above facts, I cannot understand why an LNG port in Hudson's Bay hasn't already been built, or, for that matter, more LNG ports on the West Coast. The only LNG port we have is in Kitimat, which is currently being commissioned. Canadians should be among the wealthiest people on earth. If only we had smart leaders.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I think this is a fair question. I would prefer it be private capital that takes that gamble.

There is a geopolitical angle that we must consider as well - based on what the presence of that terminal will enable. Sometimes ROI can't be the only evaluative criteria.

AoD

 

[guavadelic]

Given the above facts, I cannot understand why an LNG port in Hudson's Bay hasn't already been built, or, for that matter, more LNG ports on the West Coast. The only LNG port we have is in Kitimat, which is currently being commissioned. Canadians should be among the wealthiest people on earth. If only we had smart leaders.

The business case is very tough there due to the threat of remote oil spills and the accompanying prohibitively high insurance costs. Environmentally it would risk disaster in the difficulty to respond to any oil spills due to its very remote location. Another port in northern manitoba would be more useful in exporting things like Potash.

There are bunch of LNG projects on Canada's west coast. In addition to LNG Canada that's about to come online, Woodfibre LNG is currently under construction with Cedar LNG set to begin construction. Ksi Lisims LNG, a potentially massive project, is going thru the approval process now.

When it comes to exporting LNG to Europe, it would be more feasable for Canada to focus on developing LNG projects in Atlantic Canada, where it would be pretty advantageous when exporting to Europe.

 

[EBT]

The business case is very tough there due to the threat of remote oil spills and the accompanying prohibitively high insurance costs. Environmentally it would risk disaster in the difficulty to respond to any oil spills due to its very remote location. Another port in northern manitoba would be more useful in exporting things like Potash.

Oil spills? We are talking about LNG - Liquefied Natural Gas. LNG spills rapidly evaporate into the atmosphere, so I don't see the threat of remote oil spills.