[rbt]

My deepest conspiracy theory is that money is actually tight, and work may be quietly getting slowed or deferred in the interest of cash flow. It's one thing to promise the network, but QP is running close enough to a balanced budget that it would be politically tempting to choke off spending until the eventual election. Let the coffers flow as planned, and that very important bragging point would be forfeited. Ford has done enough dumb things (like spend money on beer in corner stores) that may have taken a bite out of available cash. Just me being gloomy, but not necessarily illogical.

Balancing the budget is independent of capital spend. Interest on the debt shows up in future years, but not the capital spend; selling capital items (like highways or the hydro system) doesn't work as a tool to balance the budget for a single year anymore either.

If Metrolinx has cash-flow issues for capital projects then it's because Ontario is holding back on issuing debt; with rapidly falling interest rates that's not a terrible idea for a year.

EDIT: Worth mentioning, if Ontario's credit rating is considered borderline then that would be a reason the province might hold back on issuing debt for capital projects. Doesn't show as a deficit in the budget but a credit rating drop would hit the news cycle hard.

 

[chrisw]

My deepest conspiracy theory is that money is actually tight, and work may be quietly getting slowed or deferred in the interest of cash flow. It's one thing to promise the network, but QP is running close enough to a balanced budget that it would be politically tempting to choke off spending until the eventual election. Let the coffers flow as planned, and that very important bragging point would be forfeited. Ford has done enough dumb things (like spend money on beer in corner stores) that may have taken a bite out of available cash. Just me being gloomy, but not necessarily illogical.

All the infrastructure spending don't show up in the Budgetary Balance/Deficit quite interesting.

 

[innsertnamehere]

All of the lines have major items which may be prerequisites before any real service upgrades happen

- Barrie has grading in good shape from Davenport northwards, but without the bottom section from Paton to Strachan I am doubtful they will advance the track laying and signal work very quickly.
- Barrie and Kitchener are showing some signs of progress west of Strachan, but work on Liberty is beginning and I fear it will have to be completed ahead of doubling the Barrie line through Parkdale
- Bloor station is plodding along, so the fourth track from Parkdale to Nickle is not likely any time soon
- Stouffville still needs the West Highland Creek bridge to be built
- Stouffville is probably limited by the status of LSE work. East Harbour and Ontario Line construction may limit LSE to two tracks for some time, even with the upcoming track shift (once all the bridges are complete) capacity will be constrained.

My deepest conspiracy theory is that money is actually tight, and work may be quietly getting slowed or deferred in the interest of cash flow. It's one thing to promise the network, but QP is running close enough to a balanced budget that it would be politically tempting to choke off spending until the eventual election. Let the coffers flow as planned, and that very important bragging point would be forfeited. Ford has done enough dumb things (like spend money on beer in corner stores) that may have taken a bite out of available cash. Just me being gloomy, but not necessarily illogical.

- Paul

Ford's message and politics is all about "getting it done". Budgetary planning has infrastructure at (by far) record highs. I don't think it has to do with a lack of funding - more so Metrolinx incompetency. There is a reason they let go half of their senior management this week.

 

[drum118]

Ford's message and politics is all about "getting it done". Budgetary planning has infrastructure at (by far) record highs. I don't think it has to do with a lack of funding - more so Metrolinx incompetency. There is a reason they let go half of their senior management this week.

Tim to scrap ML and put it ack under MTO or back to square one putting X arm length from both the Province and municipality like i stated back in 2006 when it was a bill along with X funding yearly. A new bill will be require to create X and give it the power to built a transit system for southern Ontario with connection to the north.

Let X determined what project must come first as well the technology for it.

I have no issue moving to London UK model that was floated in 2007 and has been in ML vision to do it.

X board of directors need to be people with background in management, construction and transportation and not pointed by the province like it has been since day one.

I didn't have much hope when ML came into existent as well how the BOD was setup. What I fore saw happening down the road in 2005/08 has happen.

 

[Space Gary]

Some pretty serious iron working to install new culverts at King City GO!

 

[Allandale25]

Small's Creek boardwalk construction has begun apparently per this tweet and video. I'm sure the full renderings of the boardwalk are available elsewhere. There are only brief clips of it in the video.

 

[canarob]

Some pretty serious iron working to install new culverts at King City GO!

Hopefully we'll see this soon at West Highland Creek as well!

 

[Allandale25]

Hopefully we'll see this soon at West Highland Creek as well!

@crs1026 will lift a glass when that happens.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

All of the lines have major items which may be prerequisites before any real service upgrades happen

- Barrie has grading in good shape from Davenport northwards, but without the bottom section from Paton to Strachan I am doubtful they will advance the track laying and signal work very quickly.
- Barrie and Kitchener are showing some signs of progress west of Strachan, but work on Liberty is beginning and I fear it will have to be completed ahead of doubling the Barrie line through Parkdale
- Bloor station is plodding along, so the fourth track from Parkdale to Nickle is not likely any time soon
- Stouffville still needs the West Highland Creek bridge to be built
- Stouffville is probably limited by the status of LSE work. East Harbour and Ontario Line construction may limit LSE to two tracks for some time, even with the upcoming track shift (once all the bridges are complete) capacity will be constrained.

My deepest conspiracy theory is that money is actually tight, and work may be quietly getting slowed or deferred in the interest of cash flow. It's one thing to promise the network, but QP is running close enough to a balanced budget that it would be politically tempting to choke off spending until the eventual election. Let the coffers flow as planned, and that very important bragging point would be forfeited. Ford has done enough dumb things (like spend money on beer in corner stores) that may have taken a bite out of available cash. Just me being gloomy, but not necessarily illogical.

- Paul

Ford's message and politics is all about "getting it done". Budgetary planning has infrastructure at (by far) record highs. I don't think it has to do with a lack of funding - more so Metrolinx incompetency. There is a reason they let go half of their senior management this week.

Look, at the end of the day, Metrolinx has been putting out a ton of hot air. Whether that's because of interference at the MOT doesn't matter at this point. It's almost 2025 and all-day service is still missing pieces on the non-lakeshore line. It's always something, or "we need more track here". They need to start showing results, end of story, or there should be further consequences.

The west highland creek bridge should be done. Parkdale should have been done a long time ago and laying track from Rutherford to Bradford and beyond should not take 2 plus years.

 

[Bojaxs]

Look, at the end of the day, Metrolinx has been putting out a ton of hot air. Whether that's because of interference at the MOT doesn't matter at this point doesn't matter. It's almost 2025 and all-day service is still missing pieces on the non-lakeshore line. It's always something, or "we need more track here". They need to start showing results, end of story, or there should be further consequences.

The west highland creek bridge should be done. Parkdale should have been done a long time ago and laying track from Rutherford to Bradford and beyond should not take 2 plus years.

I don't think that's a fair assessment. I'm not trying to sound like a Metrolinx fanboy, but they're doing a lot more for the GO train network than just about any other commuter/regional rail network in N.A.
I imagine their workforce is stretched fairly thin with all the work they have going on across the network. LSE, Stouffville, Barrie, Kitchener. Hopefully once Stouffville is completed, they can divert more manpower over to the Barrie and LSE projects.
I don't think Metrolinx should be starting any more major GO train projects until they get this round of projects completed.

 

[Sunnyside]

I don't think that's a fair assessment. I'm not trying to sound like a Metrolinx fanboy, but they're doing a lot more for the GO train network than just about any other commuter/regional rail network in N.A.
I imagine their workforce is stretched fairly thin with all the work they have going on across the network. LSE, Stouffville, Barrie, Kitchener. Hopefully once Stouffville is completed, they can divert more manpower over to the Barrie and LSE projects.
I don't think Metrolinx should be starting any more major GO train projects until they get this round of projects completed.

I’m inclined to say both are true. Metrolinx is doing an unparalleled amount of work (in NA at least) and it is both commendable and much needed. But, they aren’t particularly good at it. Nor are they transparent about what they actually are doing. Still, I would disagree with those suggesting they are “doing nothing” and I would point to the Davenport Diamond for something tangible.

Things are compounded by the breadth of other transit projects Mx are completing. There is possibly some blame for the Ford Government as the OL was essentially added to the list out of nowhere and moved to the front. For what it’s worth, some work there does overlap with GO Expansion.

My takeaway is that resources are being spread very thinly, from capital to our market’s labour. I am increasingly suspicious of the industry that actually builds these projects and the role they might be playing in driving up costs. Whether this be for legitimate reasons (a lack of labour driving up the market pricetag to take new things on) or…meddling and otherwise hidden beneficiaries.

 

[crs1026]

I’m inclined to say both are true. Metrolinx is doing an unparalleled amount of work (in NA at least) and it is both commendable and much needed. But, they aren’t particularly good at it. Nor are they transparent about what they actually are doing. Still, I would disagree with those suggesting they are “doing nothing” and I would point to the Davenport Diamond for something tangible.

They are doing very many things, but piecemeal and without defined end points or even intermediate points. So, lots of major investments are made but tjhen some missing piece prevents ML from leveraging these investments and delivering better transportation. The West Highland Creek bridge is one example, the 401/409 tunnels and the half-finished fourth track through Weston are good examples. Obviously some things have to happen early and then wait for other things, but ML is glaringly bad at staging and executing work in a deliberate manner.

My takeaway is that resources are being spread very thinly, from capital to our market’s labour. I am increasingly suspicious of the industry that actually builds these projects and the role they might be playing in driving up costs. Whether this be for legitimate reasons (a lack of labour driving up the market pricetag to take new things on) or…meddling and otherwise hidden beneficiaries.

I would not exlude ML from the microscope here. One simple example is Rule 42 flagging - every piece of work performed at trackside requires a Rule 42 foreman (basically a watch person and movement controller) to protect workers from moving trains and vv. When work is cancelled on short notice, the Rule 42 flag protection can't be cancelled as it has been embedded in the train operations plan for the day....., and so a foreman sits in a truck with no work to perform. Similarly, if the flagging is arranged for less than a full day's tasks, there is waste. The flagging is a contracted service so a contractor bills for the no-show date, with markup no doubt. I wonder what the A-G would say if they inquired into the volume of non-productive flagging and other costs related to cancelled or deferred work windows and one-of tasks. The ML folks that talk to me off the record say there is huge wastefulness because work is scheduled but in the end does not proceed as intended. The setup and site prep costs of cancelled work may be significant.

A second area that I see is the extreme rigour in using jersey barriers and elaborate measures to separate work from active rail lines. I am very keen to see safe work sites, but these measures are beccoming so elaborate I feel it's reasonable to ask if ML has reached overkill. I don't know if ML requires these measures or if contractors insist on them.... or how much is required by law....and again I am all for erring on the side of safety. But as the barriers far exceed how work was done even a few years ago, one has to ask why the change. Site prep generally seems to go on for ever on ML sites.

- Paul

 

[crs1026]

@crs1026 will lift a glass when that happens.

I have my glass ready, and the contents are already aged to perfection..... having to age them further is getting frustrating!

- Paul

 

[chrisw]

Well, I'm excited to see the shift with OnCorr.

 

[Sunnyside]

They are doing very many things, but piecemeal and without defined end points or even intermediate points. So, lots of major investments are made but tjhen some missing piece prevents ML from leveraging these investments and delivering better transportation. The West Highland Creek bridge is one example, the 401/409 tunnels and the half-finished fourth track through Weston are good examples. Obviously some things have to happen early and then wait for other things, but ML is glaringly bad at staging and executing work in a deliberate manner.



I would not exlude ML from the microscope here. One simple example is Rule 42 flagging - every piece of work performed at trackside requires a Rule 42 foreman (basically a watch person and movement controller) to protect workers from moving trains and vv. When work is cancelled on short notice, the Rule 42 flag protection can't be cancelled as it has been embedded in the train operations plan for the day....., and so a foreman sits in a truck with no work to perform. Similarly, if the flagging is arranged for less than a full day's tasks, there is waste. The flagging is a contracted service so a contractor bills for the no-show date, with markup no doubt. I wonder what the A-G would say if they inquired into the volume of non-productive flagging and other costs related to cancelled or deferred work windows and one-of tasks. The ML folks that talk to me off the record say there is huge wastefulness because work is scheduled but in the end does not proceed as intended. The setup and site prep costs of cancelled work may be significant.

A second area that I see is the extreme rigour in using jersey barriers and elaborate measures to separate work from active rail lines. I am very keen to see safe work sites, but these measures are beccoming so elaborate I feel it's reasonable to ask if ML has reached overkill. I don't know if ML requires these measures or if contractors insist on them.... or how much is required by law....and again I am all for erring on the side of safety. But as the barriers far exceed how work was done even a few years ago, one has to ask why the change. Site prep generally seems to go on for ever on ML sites.

- Paul

I gather then that a large portion of the issue is that Metrolinx is not remotely concerned with controlling costs. I’d go as far to say it’s like its a fact of life.

Not to sound like a broken record, but at best it reads like Metrolinx doesn’t know what it’s doing in prioritization terms. At worst, they are just signing off on whatever is put infront of them without regard for what those things actually are. Then, they stack on an unrealistic (& likely consultant created) ‘best practice’ standard of care— which is then enforced at their expense.

In writing this, it makes me wonder if Metrolinx tolerates these costs because it hasn’t internalized them; they didn’t decide this foreman’s job was $100,000, they just asked for the work to be done.