The express service CAN BE the additional service. They are currently running 5 local trains per hour, which is more than they have ever run before. Pre-pandemic it was 2 local trains per hour (and 4 express), and in 2021 it was 4 local trains per hour (and 2 express). Based on your description it sounds like they may be returning to 6 trains per hour, which would directly contradict their claim that the reduction to 2 tracks prevents them from adding service.
Whether or not a train runs express east of Danforth has no impact on the capacity through the constrained segment west of Danforth, because there are no stops in that segment. When an express train overtakes a local train using the passing track between Guildwood and Danforth, it ends up about 5 minutes ahead of the local at the pinch point, which is pretty much the headway we want anyway to maximize utilization of the line. There is no long gap that could produce inefficient capacity utilization.
Railways around the world manage to schedule overtakes using a few hundred metres of siding at a local station. Meanwhile on Lakeshore East even during OL construction there is a 12-kilometre segment of passing track in service including 4 intermediate stations. The reason they don't want to run express service must be something other than what they're telling us, because if we were to believe that they are incapable of running express service with the currently operating tracks, it would mean that GO Transit Rail Operations are completely incompetent.
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