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Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

Fear of runaway global warming pushed 46 countries to line up Saturday behind France's bid for a new environmental body that could single out - and perhaps police - nations that abuse the Earth.

It will be interesting to see what they propose as a means to "police" what they define as "abuse." What is also of particular interest with respect to France is that it generates 80% of its electricity from nuclear. I do recall that many environmentalists are very much against nuclear power. Even St. Al Gore is against nukes. That might put a dent in the French Green Cred card.

Incidentally, China will surpass the United States as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in gross tonnage by 2012. They were not required to sign onto Kyoto. Beyond coal power it's not so easy to see what China will replace their energy needs with. One wonders how the French will manage to "police" them? Maybe with lots of French-designed nuclear reactors? Who knows.

In late 2006 NASA satellite studies noted that the burning of biomass (trees, forests, etc.) in many developing equatorial countries resulted in pollution levels that had been under-estimated by two to three times. This type of biomass burning results in the production of large concentrations of ozone, nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide. It is a also a significant health risk to the people who utilize this type of burning. Moreover, it also results in deforestation and loss of habitat. For those who fashion themselves as the police of the environment, they may want to consider what to do for the billion plus people who rely on energy derived from this biomass burning. Without access to electricity, and with fewer means available to produce it, it is clear that this development issue will continue to have its own severe localized impact on the environment.

Sadly, fears of global warming have tended to crowd out other environmental issues - particulalrly the complex ones interconnected with development, human well-being, and resource and habitat preservation. You don't need computer-based climate models to see predict these things.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

Good God is right. I fear the worst because it is already happening. If you lived on an island and you were losing your home, the nightmare has already begun, and it has.

I don't know why we are not already looking for a way to pipe the water elsewhere, like to Toronto and make ourselves a salt water beach.

Oh I know, I am just a dumb...you know what.

If it was oil, we'd be lining up for a piece of the action, I thought people's lives were supposed to be more important.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

Good God is right. I fear the worst because it is already happening. If you lived on an island and you were losing your home, the nightmare has already begun, and it has.

Kevin Costner. Call him.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

What does that mean? Why should I call him?

I posted the following in the "Liberal" thread, but I think it more appropriately belongs here:

Question:

How much have all those bombs that Dubya sr and jr dropped, contribute to global warming?

I have a feeling that it's gonna cost one or two feet in the rise of the seal level, and that's a conservative estimate, in my opinion.

Bet it's more like 5 or 10.

I really believe that all that HEAT is a major contributor to global warming, and it's not a scientific fact, it's a gut feeling that is so strong, that I don't think anybody can change my mind.

But please try, I want to know if there is any scientific basis here, because those non-stopp, CNN fireworks made me shake my head in shock and awe.

I would love to hear the science behind my opinions, if it exists.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

We'll survive. Put your faith in those DIESEL ads: water, water everywhere - and everyone dressed to the nines and enjoying themselves.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

What does that mean? Why should I call him?

Waterworld

The film.

How much have all those bombs that Dubya sr and jr dropped, contribute to global warming?

Humans exhale C02. How much does that contribute ...if anything? In answer to your concern: virtually nothing.

I have a feeling that it's gonna cost one or two feet in the rise of the seal level, and that's a conservative estimate, in my opinion.

Bet it's more like 5 or 10.

I really believe that all that HEAT is a major contributor to global warming, and it's not a scientific fact, it's a gut feeling that is so strong, that I don't think anybody can change my mind.

In its 2007 report, the IPCC actually cut in half its estimates for rise in sea level by the year 2100, from around three feet to 17 inches. And this is from an organization not know to be conservative in its estimates.

If you believe that heat has a relationship to warming, then you are onto something. The debate underway is how the apparent warming is coming about. Remember that at around 1850 to 1880, the planet was emerging from a climate event called the Little Ice Age. Natural Climate cycles figure more prominently than may may want to admit to.

It should be interesting for you to note that, in its current 2007 draft, the IPCC has cut by a third its estimates of the human net effect on climate warming.

Also, according to the US National Climate Data Centre, there has been no statistically significant increase in global temperature since 2001.

As for its computer models and predicitions for what the global climate will be like in 100 years, remember that IPCC models failed to predict the late 2006/2007 El Nino/Southern Oscillation. If they can't understand or predict natural climate events, then it is hard to see how they can prognosticate with any accuracy what the world will be like in 100 years, never mind 50 years.

But as your mind can't be changed....
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

February 11, 2007
BY MARK STEYN Sun-Times Columnist

Our Thought For The Week comes from the Boston Globe's Ellen Goodman: "I would like to say we're at a point where global warming is impossible to deny. Let's just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers, though one denies the past and the other denies the present and future."
That would be yours truly: the climate holocaust denier. I wrote last week about "global warming," or "cooling," or "climate change," or (the latest term) "climate disruption" -- for those parts of the world where the climate isn't really changing but you get an occasional blip: a warm day in winter or a flurry of snow in late April, or (for British readers) a summer's day where it rockets up to 58 and cloudy instead of being 54 and drizzling. As a result of my climate holocaust denial, I received a ton of letters along the lines of this one:

"Your piece gave most of my students, most of whom are conservative, a laugh. A journalist's word against six years of peer-reviewed research conducted by world authorities on the subject.

"But, as one my student's [sic] put it: 'Steyn's piece could prove valuable: We often run out of toilet paper here.'

"How is it that you can make a living writing what you do is a wonder. But then, the vulgar wish to be deceived, after all.

"Steve Pierson,

Professor of English."

Presumably Professor Pierson signs himself "Professor of English" to establish his credentials for opining on how I can make a living writing. To be honest, I'm flattered to know I'm being discussed at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, N.Y.: Did I displace Shakespeare? Or Maya Angelou? Or the class where you learn not to put an apostrophe in noun plurals? Has Professor Pierson's judgment of my writing also been peer-reviewed by world authorities?

Not all of us are quite so hung up on credentialization. But, if you are, you might want to read the December issue of the Journal Of Atmospheric And Solar-Terrestrial Physics in which Cornelis de Jager of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and Ilya Usoskin of the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Finland test the validity of two current hypotheses on the dependence of climate change on solar energy -- the first being that variations in the tropospheric temperature are caused directly by changes of the solar radiance (total or spectral), the other that cosmic ray fluctuations, caused by the solar/heliospheric modulation, affect the climate via cloud formation. The Finn and the Dutch guy from the A-list institutions with the fancypants monikers writing in the peer-reviewed journal conclude that the former is more likely -- that tropospheric temperatures are more likely affected by variations in the UV radiation flux rather than by those in the CR flux.

Are you thinking maybe it's time to turn over the page to the Anna Nicole Smith "A life in pictures" double spread? Well, that's my point. Most of us aren't reading the science, or even a precis of the science. We're just reading a constant din from the press that "the science is settled," and therefore we no longer need to think about it: The thinking has been done for us. Last week's U.N. IPCC "report," for example, is not the report, but a political summary thereof. As David Warren wrote in the Ottawa Citizen:

"Note that the IPCC report's conclusions were issued first, and the supporting research is now promised for several months from now. What does that tell you?"

Indeed. However, when you do read the actual science, you quickly appreciate that it's not by any means "settled" -- that there all kinds of variables. To quote the Finnish-Dutch big shots:

"There is general agreement that variations in the global (or hemispheric) tropospheric temperature are, at least partly, related to those in solar activity (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Solanki and Krikova, 2003; Usoskin et al., 2005; Kilcik, 2005)."

Therefore: "Variations of the mean tropospheric temperature must include stratosphere-troposphere interaction." However: "A detailed mechanism effectively transferring stratospheric heating into the troposphere is yet not clear."

Whoa, whoa, come back. There's no point skipping ahead: The illustrated excerpt on page D27 from Roger Ebert's Anthology of Great Lesbian Movie Scenes was swiped by the delivery boy. The thing is there are still huge disagreements about the climate change that's already taken place: in Ellen Goodman Holocaust terms (and remember: This is her analogy, not mine), it's as if we knew a lot of people died but still had no idea who or what killed them. For example: increased monsoon activity off the central west coast of India in the wake of the Sporer and Maunder Minimas. Been following that one?

The record of experts in this field -- or, at any rate, the record of absolutist experts in this field -- is not encouraging. Just to cite Ellen's corporate masters at the New York Times Company, here (from Christopher C. Horner's rollicking new book The Politically Incorrect Guide To Global Warming) is the Times' shifting position on the issue:

"MacMillan Reports Signs Of New Ice Age" (Sept. 18, 1924)

"America In Longest Warm Spell Since 1776: Temperature Line Records A 25-Year Rise" (March 27, 1933)

"Major Cooling Widely Considered To Be Inevitable (May 21, 1975)

"Past Hot Times Hold Few Reasons To Relax About Global Warming" (Dec. 27, 2005)

"Climate change" isn't like predicting Italian coalition politics. There are only two options, so, whichever one predicts, one has a 50 percent chance of being right. The planet will always be either warming or cooling.

By now you're probably scoffing: Oh, come on, Steyn, what kind of sophisticated analysis is that? It doesn't just go up or down, it could sorta more-or-less stay pretty much where it is.

Very true. In the course of the 20th century, the planet's temperature supposedly increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius, which (for those of you who want it to sound scarier) is a smidgeonette over 1 degree Fahrenheit. Is that kinda sorta staying the same or is it a dramatic warming trend?

And is nought-point-seven of an uptick worth wrecking the global economy over? Sure, say John Kerry and Al Gore, suddenly retrospectively hot for Kyoto ratification. But, had America and Australia signed on to Kyoto, and had Canada and Europe complied with it instead of just pretending to, by 2050 the treaty would have reduced global warming by 0.07C: a figure that would be statistically undectectable within annual climate variation. And, in return for this meaningless gesture, American GDP in 2010 would be lower by $97 billion to $397 billion -- and those are the U.S. Energy Information Administration's somewhat optimistic models.

And now Jerry Mahlman of the National Center for Atmospheric Research says "it might take another 30 Kyotos" to halt global warming: 30 x $397 billion is . . . er, too many zeroes for my calculator.

So, faced with a degree rise in temperature, we could destroy the planet's economy, technology, communications and prosperity. And ruin the lives of millions of people.

Or we could do what man does best: adapt.

You do the math.

©Mark Steyn 2007
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

"I would like to say we're at a point where global warming is impossible to deny. Let's just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers, though one denies the past and the other denies the present and future."

The propaganda mill runs wild. On a purely political and sociological level, this whole thing is rather fascinating to watch. There have already been smear campaigns organized to repudiate the so called "deniers," and public calls for people to lose their jobs if they disagree with the "evidence" which is at best correlative, and far from complete.

The term "denier" is a smear technique used in this case to make a direct association to the holocaust, suggesting that those who are rightfully questioning this climate change program are on par with the murderers of Nazi death camps. It's an over the top propaganda ploy, and most likely quite insulting to survivors of the Holocaust, as nobody has actually died from global warming/climate change directly attributable to human activity. Accusations of denial are just so much easier when actual proof is so tough to come by.

What will be fascinating is whether there will be a long term impact on climate science. Government science funding is sensitive to politics, and politics is directed by opinion polls (though many politicians will deny this). Opinion polls can be easily shaped by external forces such as the press and interest groups (political parties and special interest organizations - like environmental groups). So we could see pressure brought by environmentalists (the vast majority who are not scientists, but members of what amounts to being a private political party) to alter funding to research programs that may actually question the human-caused climate change religion. Or maybe scientists will just restrict themselves to framing their conclusions in such a way so as not to offend or raise questions that might get them into trouble with the political masters managing the funds.

Nothing like trying to barter away the ideals of reasoned free inquiry in the name of political dominance and soapbox moralizing. Maybe Lysenkoism lives again.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

"Climate change" isn't like predicting Italian coalition politics. There are only two options, so, whichever one predicts, one has a 50 percent chance of being right. The planet will always be either warming or cooling.



So he doesn't understand probability.... why should I be listening to him pontificating on how it'd be too much bother to halt global warming even if it existed.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

But that kind of begs the question: why should he be trying to stop something where there is no certainty that it is happening?
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

What exactly is the point of Steyn's quotes from the journal article other than engaging in strawman arguments? The paper suggested that one of the two mechanisms indicated in solar forced tropospheric temperature increase is more dominant than the other. It tells us nothing about the validity (or invalidity) of tropospheric temperature increase due to anthropogenic emissions.

AoD
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

No. It rather makes the point that he isn't very credible.
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

My advice would be to stop reading about climate change in the lay press (especially Mark Steyn... geeze). Find some peer-reviewed review articles written by educated people on PubMed.

PubMed
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

Solar forcing mechanisms are being examined intensively. The combination of various solar cycles (including changes in irradiance, magnetic field strength, and the subsequent impact of cosmic rays), and their resulting impact on the ocean-atmosphere coupling, would explain the warming of the last century and a half. Moreover, there is very good evidence that the climate is in the midst of a roughly 1,500 year cycle of heating and cooling that is driven by the sun. This cycle is sometimes referred to as the Dansgaard-Oeschger event. There have been roughly nine such events in the last 12,000 years.


Here are a variety of links that may be of interest, and deal with the influence and impact solar activity.

www.agu.org/pubs/crossref...7142.shtml

www.sciencemag.org/cgi/co...type=HWCIT

www.gsajournals.org/perls...2.0.CO%3B2

www.sciencemag.org/cgi/co...type=HWCIT

www.journals.royalsoc.ac....1:102023,1

www.springerlink.com/cont...850360302/

public.web.cern.ch/press/...4.06E.html

www.dsri.dk/~hsv/Noter/solsys99.html
 
Re: Global warming report builds support for world environme

My advice would be to stop reading about climate change in the lay press (especially Mark Steyn... geeze).

But of course it's OK to listen to Al Gore.
 

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