Greenspace
Senior Member
Housing affordability is trending up.
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- Thread starter Daveography
- Start date
Stevey_G
Active Member
Doesn’t that indicate a prospective supply side issue?
Greenspace
Senior Member
Population growth is about to collapse. This could easily mean oversupply in many markets soon.
David A
Senior Member
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Although, I doubt all those TFWs here now will leave when their permits expire and I doubt our governments are competent enough to enforce that.
Yes, it is about to change considerably, especially for those larger markets in Canada that relied on a steady and increasing flow of immigrants to support housing demand .
Although, I doubt all those TFWs here now will leave when their permits expire and I doubt our governments are competent enough to enforce that.
Stevey_G
Active Member
Ahh icic, I read at first on my phone I didn't even see the forecasted portion lol.
I'm a bit unfamiliar with what sounds like changes to immigration policies. Have the Feds put a moratorium on new immigration and allowance of TFWs?
As David said, I doubt students and works are going to go without a fight, and I'd also like to know if that graph is forecasted on a small recent sample size, or if it's based off stronger metrics.
Edit: Just had a good look at the aggregate data in the link provided. Housing affordability seems by the stats to be driven by short term influences such as a reduction in interest rates and a rise in median incomes nation-wide. I think each city will be a case study in itself but being the more affordable cities to live in, any change to immigration policies will definitely have an impact on housing affordability in Edmonton and Winnipeg specifically but shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum alone. There are some major economic developments happening in things like AI and the Oil and Gas Sector that will impact Edmonton and Northern Alberta in general as well.
I suspect a modest increase year over year in both mortgaging costs but also in income growths. The two will be more locked together than what you see in places like Vancouver do to limited speculative investment in our Beautiful but boiler-room-esque city.
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David A
Senior Member
No one is moving to the GTA or GVA because it is affordable, so they rely a lot on immigration to keep their housing prices (overly) inflated. I expect they will be hurt most by the planned reductions.
Stevey_G
Active Member
Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what changes to immigration policies have on the different markets. I hope we see a modest and slow decline in costs coupled with a bunch of rubber stamping of mining, energy, and infrastructure projects to bring full time jobs in across the country and improve wages.
channing76
Active Member
We will when Pierre gets in power. Canada is a resource extraction nation, that's our bread and butter.
Stevey_G
Active Member
He's got alot ahead of him if he and the party are what everyone hopes they can be. Canada's a Walled Garden of shady businesses and I'm really hoping Government starts making changes to how it regulates and administrates the nation.
Like we have a massive copper mine that's been stuck in permitting for decades out in the Interior that would create 600 full time jobs for the towns of Avola, Vavenby, and Clearwater. They'd be high paying jobs and would be the first glimmer of hope for these communities economically speaking since all the lumber mills shut down. It happens to also be on already disturbed land with logging roads built and the support for the most part of the local Indigenous groups.
Yet there it is, being held up by inept governing.
Sorry for derailing the convo, but I do hope you're right. I'm cautiously optimistic for the future of Canada.
David A
Senior Member
I don't think building mines in Northern Ontario or Northern BC will do a lot for demand for condos in Toronto or here.
And there are a whole bunch of restrictions and regulations that will not be easily removed, so good luck with that.
I suspect there will be a lot of disappointment, but people may stop blaming the current government for every problem in the world and maybe start blaming the next one.
Stevey_G
Active Member
Permitting resource extraction lowers costs of goods in and makes it easier to produce manufactured/engineered products as well. The lower costs of materials makes building new developments economic whilst providing more people with access to high income earning jobs.
This country has serious issues regarding our regulatory environment and permitting processes though. We have an unusually large amount of red tape that often makes prospective industrial development NOT economic and THAT issue in governance needs to be addressed first and foremost if any government is going to take over and fulfill the promises of economic development and cooperation. Can they? Sure. Will they? Time will tell. I do think they deserve their shot.
IanO
Superstar
Recent update from a realtor says that condos are up 15.4% y/y to $194k.
Kosy123
Senior Member
While Toronto struggles to build housing, Edmonton lays foundation for new urban future
A tale of two cities: While Toronto struggles to build housing, Edmonton is laying the foundation for a new urban future. Find out more.
financialpost.com
I remember that Sohi mentioned the HAF goal of 35,443 units was a high and lofty goal. To see that we're already 42% of the way there, and the year isn't over is insane tbh.
MacLac
Senior Member
The Year?! Forget that…..we’ve got 2 years + 2 weeks to reach this goal. LolWhile Toronto struggles to build housing, Edmonton lays foundation for new urban future
A tale of two cities: While Toronto struggles to build housing, Edmonton is laying the foundation for a new urban future. Find out more.
I remember that Sohi mentioned the HAF goal of 35,443 units was a high and lofty goal. To see that we're already 42% of the way there, and the year isn't over is insane tbh.
David A
Senior Member
Oh this must really irk some of those at the centre of the universe that we are building more houses than them, especially considering many of the people there think Edmonton is a much smaller city than it actually is.While Toronto struggles to build housing, Edmonton lays foundation for new urban future
A tale of two cities: While Toronto struggles to build housing, Edmonton is laying the foundation for a new urban future. Find out more.
I remember that Sohi mentioned the HAF goal of 35,443 units was a high and lofty goal. To see that we're already 42% of the way there, and the year isn't over is insane tbh.
Younger people in the GTA who want to have a family are not going to wait decades for sanity to return to housing prices there. A lot of retirees there are going to be visiting their grand children here and in other places in the future.
At least we are trying to make up for some of their shortfall.