David A
Senior Member
There are probably some suburban people in Edmonton who are still ambivalent about fixing our troubled downtown, but the clear message here is if we don't, the tax burden will go up for the rest of the city.
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- Thread starter Daveography
- Start date
thommyjo
Senior Member
A few questions:
The 10% number is thrown around a lot. But we really only had 3 years anywhere close to that? Or pre 2007 was it also 10% or higher?
Sometimes it feels framed like it’s always been 10% and recently fell off.
What amount of this reflects a growing city in geography and residential properties that will of course shift the % ? As Calgary has similarly sprawled, I’d imagine their total tax from downtown has grown, but the percentage of total may have also shrunk. Do we know?
To get to 10%, realistically, what dollar value of property tax needs to be built and what does that translate into in terms of housing units? Is it 5000 units or 20,000 units?
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
"Building up" DT would help, but in some ways it's chapstick on a gunshot wound. As long as property values continue their decline, so will assessment values, and in turn the proportional share of the overall tax base. The good thing is both caved prices and investment into Downtown vibrancy make it a more attractive market.
A dollar into residential property in DT already goes MUCH further than it would south of the river. A core that's good for business is good for people, and as soon as a little bit of appetite drums up for Downtown residential, it'll likely trigger a flood of speculative investment. We saw this happen in Wikhwentowin. I got priced out of my apartment there in less than 2 years of occupancy, despite it being one of the most historically affordable markets in the city.
Rant over, with the gist being that Downtown is cheap, not "affordable", and as soon as investors catch a whiff of that it'll drum up a higher tax base.
David A
Senior Member
Good points. It probably is not realistic to expect to get back to 10% which seems to have been the highest point ever over the last two decades.
I feel around 7% which is close to the average is perhaps what we should aim for. Interestingly, the decline below the average started before COVID some time in 2017.
I have always said one reason COVID hit downtown Edmonton so hard was because it there was already an economic decline before that and this chart supports that.
I feel around 7% which is close to the average is perhaps what we should aim for. Interestingly, the decline below the average started before COVID some time in 2017.
I have always said one reason COVID hit downtown Edmonton so hard was because it there was already an economic decline before that and this chart supports that.
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
The decline started in 2009 - but I have no idea what triggered it.
Edit: Pulled an article from this period. DT prices are almost unchanged. Maybe the 2008 crisis hit and things never caught their stride afterward?
David A
Senior Member
Yes, sub prime mortgages in the US and if you look at a chart of oil prices from that era it will also explain some of the decline. However, I would focus more on where we are in relation to the average than the peak.
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
Long term average (1984-2025.) mean is 244k, median is 215k (sold, not asking price).
Current (2025 YTD) averages are 265k mean and 222k median.
No idea how the tax rate has changed, but retail stats show that DT residential isn't even keeping up with inflation.
David A
Senior Member
Yes, it is definitely cheap and perhaps investors will catch on eventually, but it has been in over a decade of decline now and there is no obvious sign of a turn around so far.
It has turned into a very long negative almost sort of a doom loop now, so I feel we need some sort of catalyst to try change the narrative, something big enough to attract some of that investor attention.
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
Maybe the cratering Canadian market (especially in Vancouver and Toronto) will redirect large-scale speculative investment to easy, inexpensive targets. Edmonton's downtown residential (and even CRE in some areas) is an easy shot. If a trust was ready to put $850k into one DT Toronto dwelling unit, I would be shocked to see them turn down 3-4 times more units for the same price here.
Interprovincial and international migration are also putting upward pressure across the city. Part of the only reason its impacts are moderate so far is our incredible development rate.
trevorhayden
Active Member
We need to turn downtown into a tourist destination to increase values, including giving more space over to people not cars, opening more museums, galleries, and event venues; and bringing more festivals to the city centre.
Greenspace
Senior Member
Overall amount of tax levy from Downtown will continue to fall as the rest of the city outpaces Downtown on assessments and growth. Some res growth will help but it's assessed at a lower rate than non-res. New offices can help with assessment, as can return-to-office because occupancy affects the valuation of buildings.
David A
Senior Member
Maybe, but I feel here as the saying goes that hope is not a strategy. First, it seems many of the people moving here for affordability are buying houses in newer areas, generally not so much properties in the downtown core. It kind of makes sense, because if you sell that Toronto condo for $750,000 or more you can actually then probably buy a new house here with that. Secondly, I believe that the problem with the downtown property tax base is more the value of commercial properties which constitute more of the value and also pays more tax than residential properties downtown. So those trusts would have to be interested in buying some slightly used commercial or office buildings.