[Northern Light]

The immense amount of rental underway and limited immigration patterns for the foreseeable future mean rents will likely stay down and dropping for a while.. no shortage of stock coming online

You're fine up to this point.

and little demand to fill it.

Broadly speaking this is not correct, the vacancy rate shows that we still have an overall landlord's market and we're only seeing price reductions that bring us back to 2022/23 levels.

If you were to add the caveat, at current expected market prices, then I'd be happy to agree.

Rents will have to come down.

On new builds (currently exempt from rent control) I don't see this as too large an issue, you fill the building at the going rate (obvious there's a certain floor) but if you only break even the first year or three, big deal, when the market recovers your ROI will be fine.

It's an interesting discussion as to where we will land, but I think rents have at least another 10% to give back in absolute dollars and probably 15% or more before they level off and and being to increase with inflation.

Ideally, I'd like to see them fall even further......but builders here will differ, understandably.

Latest census estimates actually show the GTA shrinking in population last quarter.

Good! I'd like to see more pressure release. If the Feds even hit their target of getting temporary residents/workers down to 5% (which I think is still too high, I'd like a target of 3%) ....

A disproportionate number of those will be in the GTA and Vancouver.

A reduction in population of 5% in the GTA would be great. Shave ~400,000 residents, maybe 150,000 in the City. That would take a lost of pressure off on housing and traffic.

I'm not anti-growth, but I am in favour of having the housing, healthcare and transit in place, before it arrives.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Demand is always relative to price, yes. No demand is intended to mean demand at current rents. Demand will increase to fill these units at some point with rent declines, but given a total shrinking population… it might take more declines than the developers are hoping for.

Ontario as a whole lost population last quarter- which means the GTA is shrinking quickly as its population is supported by a constant influx of immigrants which has suddenly dried up faster than the regular exodus of people to the rest of the province will.

The question on when the market will recover to me is a question of when population growth will stabilize and return.

 

[Mihairokov]

There is going to be an excessive amount of rental product in Corktown/Moss Park/Distillery when you combine this project, ROQ, all the rentals in Distillery and multiple Fitzrovia sites. Great for affordability, but I have no clue if and how this will all pencil out

It's going to be a lot of people added to this area in the next few years. Fascinated to see how it plays out and how busy this spot can get.

 

[Northern Light]

Demand is always relative to price, yes. No demand is intended to mean demand at current rents. Demand will increase to fill these units at some point with rent declines, but given a total shrinking population… it might take more declines than the developers are hoping for.

The 2021 census reported that 10.3% of Toronto households are overcrowded.

This is defined as any situation in which there are 3 or more people sleeping in one bedroom, or where children, under 18, of the opposite sex have to share a room.

There are 1.16 million households in the City. 10.3% would equal a net need/demand for no less than 150,800 net new bedrooms (presuming overcrowding by 1 person, clearly some households have 2 entire families living in a 1brdm and so the actual number will be higher.

i think 200,000 net new bedrooms is a reasonable guesstimate.

Perhaps 60,000 of these are required as net new units, while much of the rest is net new larger units.

The exact numbers will vary, but the issue is that the base level demand for net new housing is there...........but not with incomes and prices where they are today.

If developers want their market back, lowering prices is part of that; but they also need to be banging on the government's door about raising incomes.

 

[Undead]

but they also need to be banging on the government's door about raising incomes.

Except the private sector also wants to suppress wages. Something about having cakes and eating them...

 

[Northern Light]

Except the private sector also wants to suppress wages. Something about having cakes and eating them...

Absolutely true.; however, the real estate development sector is not a big low-wage payer.

The majority of those in its employ (underwriters, planners, executives) and under contract to it (architects, engineers, construction workers) make well above median wages.

So the impact of a minimum wage rise is pretty marginal on the industry; but enormously beneficial.

Broadly speaking, anyone earning up to 50% over the minimum wage has a very high correlation in their earnings to that of the lowest earner, while up to 100% maintains a tangible link.

From the industries point of view, its not the person making the minimum that interests them, they are, generally, too far from being able to afford market rents/sales prices.

But ...what about the person making a 60% premium to the minimum? So....$26 per hour or roughly 56k per year.

Clearly, the can't be a market renter on their own...........and even as a couple, anything more than a 1 bdrm is a challenge.

But what if Ontario minimum wage were the same as California's after factoring for exchange rate?

So ~$23 per hour CAD....

That would make the person making 60% over that.......a $36.80 per hour employee or about $74,000 per year.

At which point they probably can (just) afford market rent in Toronto, but as a couple are in great shape.

Adverse impact to the industry from its own costs is low........as the effect becomes much smaller at higher wage rates.

But the inflated customer base is a gold mine.

 

[City_cyclist]

Demo permit now issued
View attachment 668278

What's the usual time between a demo permit getting issued and actual demolition starting? I was there the other day and it didn't seem to be any different; I saw people leaving and entering the building like business as usual. I didn't see any construction fences or even the "A change is proposed for this site" notice.

 

[Northern Light]

@Paclo

Minor Variance approved with conditions, Decision Notice issued August 19th.

Conditions as follows:

On condition 1, this is roughly equal to 4 Bikeshare Stations.

 

[Northern Light]

What's the usual time between a demo permit getting issued and actual demolition starting? I was there the other day and it didn't seem to be any different; I saw people leaving and entering the building like business as usual. I didn't see any construction fences or even the "A change is proposed for this site" notice.

The builder here is aiming to start construction by year end.

That would require everyone out, at least a month before, normally.

So expect to see the building empty by November'ish.

 

[aldha86]

I saw some construction signs and pylons on Berkeley beside the building. Can I ask, is the project going to get built no matter what because is funded? So many empty lots in the area.

 

[torontologist]

@Paclo

Minor Variance approved with conditions, Decision Notice issued August 19th.

Conditions as follows:

View attachment 677405

On condition 1, this is roughly equal to 4 Bikeshare Stations.

Hoping this means 4 new bikeshare stations in this area and not in some far-flung corner of the city- they're frequently empty, we need more. Especially with the influx of new residents.

 

[Northern Light]

Hoping this means 4 new bikeshare stations in this area and not in some far-flung corner of the city- they're frequently empty, we need more. Especially with the influx of new residents.

Ask your Councillor for more. area stations.

Suggest King/Princess on the north/west corner by Tokyo Smoke, there's room there.

Adelaide/Princess South-West corner probably requires boulevard parking to be removed, but there's space.

Ontario/Adelaide North-West corner should have enough room.

I'd have to go scout the images in our thread as streetview isn't up to date enough, but there must be room around 'Time and Space' for one or more as well.

 

[Tuscani01]

This is B+H Architects now.

 

[DSCToronto]

Ask your Councillor for more. area stations.

Suggest King/Princess on the north/west corner by Tokyo Smoke, there's room there.

Adelaide/Princess South-West corner probably requires boulevard parking to be removed, but there's space.

Ontario/Adelaide North-West corner should have enough room.

I'd have to go scout the images in our thread as streetview isn't up to date enough, but there must be room around 'Time and Space' for one or more as well.

There is large dock on Lower Sherbourne just south of T&S, one ON Princess nearer Front (beside T&S) plus one on Frederick and one on The Esplanade each a VERY short walk to T&S. We may need more docks but not, I would say, closer to T&S. The REAL problem is that BikeShare have got REALLY poor at bike-balancing and one frequently finds docks with no (working) bikes or docs with no spaces. Life being as it is, I always seem to find no bikes when I want one and no free docks when I need one!! :-> They need to work more time and effort on the balancing and less on adding more docks! (BTW Thge dock in Market lane Park has gone - work on Park is starting, eventually.

 

[reinventingthewheel]

(BTW Thge dock in Market lane Park has gone - work on Park is starting, eventually.

Poor coordination between city, bikeshareTO and contractors as the dock still appears active but it’s fenced in with 2 great bikes begging to be ridden!

Although, the fencing doesn’t look particularly secure so I suppose some tired riders could have forced their way in to offload.