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I’m not a partisan by any means and frankly I’ve voted for Liberals more than I have voted for the Tories. The Liberals once stood for a better balance of free markets and social services. The last 6 years with the NDP showed nearly zero focus on economic growth. I am disappointed that the Tories haven’t released a formal platform but in this era of sound bites does anyone except folks like us here truly read it anyway?

For me it’s more an issue of trust and failing to deliver. I read the Carney platform and was more disappointed by it. It read just like Trudeaus platform. Lots and lots of promises but lacking any details (e.g. new industrial carbon pricing) and many will likely never see the light of day(HSR). I personally don’t think Canadians should reward a government that has failed on many files with another term and that we should punish the Liberals for their failures so they get a time out and clean house.

The main selling feature of the Tories to me is not just fresh set of hands at the wheel but also a fresh tone and focus on smaller government and less regulations and a focus on economic development. This by no means the Tories are perfect or don’t have flaws. They have plenty of them but Canadas government should not be the answer to how we build up the economy. That’s the crux of what Carney is selling.

Let’s compare a few examples and policy differences:

1)Economic policy:
On economic development, the reason the Liberals had to buy TMX is because all the red tape (C-69) scared away any private investment. The process took too long and was too expensive.

The Tories would repeal these onerous laws is the promise. The main thing I liked is the deferal of capital gains tax if companies re-invest in Canada. That’s a good thing. Again here Tories proven right with Carney abandoning the capital gains increase.

2)Climate change::
I am a pro carbon tax supporter. However, Pierre was proven right that the Carbon tax was a failure by design. The Liberals bungled it with the Maritime heating oil exception and other exceptions. While Carney was smart to zero it out it shows the Liberals stopped believing in it themselves. The policy didn’t reduce our carbon consumption because in my opinion it should have been offer not by rebates but by income tax reductions. The carbon tax to me is a consumption tax.

Tories would repeal it proper and focus to export and develop more of our energy and mineral wealth. Canada is probably the only country with massive energy that does not export it globally. Pierre’s point in the debate where he said exporting our energy to places like India would offset their use of dung or coal would be better for the environment. On principle no country on earth leaves their mineral and oil wealth underground. They use it to build up their own wealth. Why should Canada be different?

3)Housing:
The housing file is also a failure. The Liberals have failed with taxing housing and foreign investors and the various incentives have driven prices up not down. Yet Carney just stole Poiliviers signature policy to cut GST on new homes. While I agree with Carney we need more rentals, I don’t trust the Liberals to deliver here.

The Tories are much more likely to reduce regulations and allow the private sector to do the work here. I’d love to have them abolish some of the boutique programs like the FHSA or the CMHC or the other ones the Liberals have put together for their housing accelerators they have not delivered.

4)Social programs :
The Liberals only limited success was with the daycare program. Yes you are right Ford screwed it up with rules but the Feds could have forced his hand as they control the funds. Here I can give the Liberals credit that the daycare program and the revamped child care benefit was likely their only core successes policy wise. The dental is too early to tell and pharma-care is barely a program with only a few medicines covered.

The Tories here are a blank slate as they haven’t said what they would do except to keep these programs in general. They are likely to look at more private sector involvement and deregulation. Maybe they will tackle more on mental health or health care in general.

Overall to me this is less about voting for the Tories and more of its time to fire the current government for their poor performance. Yes there is a risk the new guys will mess up but the current set already have IMHO.

In any case, given where the polls are we are likely headed for a majority Liberal government unless something drastic happens in this last week.
It reads like you started with the conclusion of supporting the Conservatives and worked backwards to rationalize. Carney, for all the Liberals' faults, is much more economically minded than Trudeau. He has more of a track record of handling difficult situations than PP, and you cannot discount that the next 4 years will be difficult with a mercurial and hostile president in the White House.
 
4)Social programs :
The Liberals only limited success was with the daycare program. Yes you are right Ford screwed it up with rules but the Feds could have forced his hand as they control the funds. Here I can give the Liberals credit that the daycare program and the revamped child care benefit was likely their only core successes policy wise. The dental is too early to tell and pharma-care is barely a program with only a few medicines covered.

It predates the daycare program, so people don't talk about it much any more, but the Canada Child Benefit caused massive reductions in the child poverty rate in Canada. Some of that has gone backwards between 2022 and 2024 because the benefit hasn't kept up with inflation, but many fewer kids live in poverty today than in 2015.
 
To be clear and I should have been clearer that many PM’s and aspiring PM’s had legal backgrounds to my understanding. However, I am not sure how accurate that assumption is now that I think about it… >.<

…that said though and my point was, while I get some backgrounds may give aspiring political leaders advantages, in the end it really shouldn’t matter…as long as they can do their job and do it well, IMO.
Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper weren't lawyers, but I think before that, every PM other than Joe Clark at least had a law degree, even if they never actually worked as a lawyer.
 
Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper weren't lawyers, but I think before that, every PM other than Joe Clark at least had a law degree, even if they never actually worked as a lawyer.
Makes sense. I'd like to think there is a benefit to having those who makes the laws being lawyers themselves. Health departments likely benefit from having doctors, such as Dr. Jane Philpott (Minister of Health from 2015 to 2017) and Dr. Carolyn Bennett (Minister of State for Public Health from 2003 to 2006 and Minister of Mental Health and Addictions from 2021 to 2023). Former soldiers as Minister of National Defence is not uncommon, though Harjit Sajjan wasn't very good.
 
Let’s compare a few examples and policy differences:

1)Economic policy:
On economic development, the reason the Liberals had to buy TMX is because all the red tape (C-69) scared away any private investment. The process took too long and was too expensive.
The Tories would repeal these onerous laws is the promise

I will take apart the Libs on several points.......but on the above, the commitment made below sounds pretty much like what you're looking for..........one review (federal or provincial) and a time cap on how long it takes:

1745243500360.png

. The main thing I liked is the deferal of capital gains tax if companies re-invest in Canada.

Only for two years, like the Liberals brief HST holiday, I don't think its likely to do much. It may cause some acceleration of investments already planned, but if you have to realize the gain and make the investment within 2 years, I find it improbable you would trigger substantial new investments in that window.

That’s a good thing. Again here Tories proven right with Carney abandoning the capital gains increase.

I actually disagree on the merits of the policy here. I favour a capital gains increase, and that's as someone who very much reaps the benefit of the low inclusion rate. My only gripe was that they made the change complicated and reduced potential revenue from same.

2)Climate change::
I am a pro carbon tax supporter. However, Pierre was proven right that the Carbon tax was a failure by design. The Liberals bungled it with the Maritime heating oil exception and other exceptions. While Carney was smart to zero it out it shows the Liberals stopped believing in it themselves. The policy didn’t reduce our carbon consumption because in my opinion it should have been offer not by rebates but by income tax reductions. The carbon tax to me is a consumption tax.

I agree that the consumer carbon tax didn't work out politically; the choice to go w/the rebate was a political one (you can see me give you back the money) and one to ensure low income earners who pay relatively little income tax got the money back.

That's one of the challenges on doing an off-set tax reduction. If you simply lower the entry level bracket, that cut passes through to everyone who pays tax in that bracket from low income to high income. Meanwhile those who don't pay income tax, would see nothing; yet still feel the effect of consumer price increases.

There are ways to address this, that would arguably be better than what the Liberals chose. You could raise the basic personal amount, but recover that from high income earners/cap their benefit; while using the HST tax credit to top up low income earners who otherwise wouldn't see any benefit.

Of course, you could also legislate hard caps on pollution that are inviolable and skip the tax entirely. There are trade-offs every which way.

On principle no country on earth leaves their mineral and oil wealth underground. They use it to build up their own wealth. Why should Canada be different?

I'm fine w/this, to a point..........though I think all of humanity is short sighted in that we don't have a clear plan for how there will still be non-renewable resources for everyone in 250 years time.

3)Housing:

The Tories are much more likely to reduce regulations and allow the private sector to do the work here.

On what do you base this conclusion?

***

Also, Toronto now has among the most permissive zoning regimes going, there are some obnoxious bits that need to tweaked from bike parking standards to loading zone requirements........but we're mostly there.

I'm not sure what regulations you think stand in the way of building in a City that has built more housing than any other in North America the last decade.

I’d love to have them abolish some of the boutique programs like the FHSA or the CMHC or the other ones the Liberals have put together for their housing accelerators they have not delivered.

? Uh..... the CMHC financing programs are virtually the only reason anything is being built right now, and certainly no affordable housing project is viable without them.

4)Social programs :
The Liberals only limited success was with the daycare program. Yes you are right Ford screwed it up with rules but the Feds could have forced his hand as they control the funds. Here I can give the Liberals credit that the daycare program and the revamped child care benefit was likely their only core successes policy wise. The dental is too early to tell and pharma-care is barely a program with only a few medicines covered.

The Tories here are a blank slate as they haven’t said what they would do except to keep these programs in general. They are likely to look at more private sector involvement and deregulation. Maybe they will tackle more on mental health or health care in general.

So wait a minute............. you don't really take issue w/the social spending, except to say the results aren't fully in..............but you have faith based on no promises and no evidence that the Conservatives will magically find money for mental healthcare...or that some sort of private sector solution will do something to lower the cost of drugs or dental?
 
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On economic development, the reason the Liberals had to buy TMX is because all the red tape (C-69) scared away any private investment. The process took too long and was too expensive.
C-69 didn't become law until 2019. The government took over TMX in 2018.

In any case, given where the polls are we are likely headed for a majority Liberal government unless something drastic happens in this last week.
Thank god we're on track to avoid a CPC disaster.
 
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3)Housing:
The housing file is also a failure. The Liberals have failed with taxing housing and foreign investors and the various incentives have driven prices up not down. Yet Carney just stole Poiliviers signature policy to cut GST on new homes. While I agree with Carney we need more rentals, I don’t trust the Liberals to deliver here.
One problem with increasing the supply of housing is that the value of existing housing will drop - as intended. But as the value of existing housing declines, the equity of homeowners drops, meaning that homeowners who use their their homes as collateral for loans (lines of credit) or that expect to sell their homes to fund for their retirements will take a hit. "Too bad Boomers" we may exclaim, but it’s not all boomers, but also GenX and increasingly millennials that are relying on inflated housing values to stay afloat financially. And then there's those underwater who bought on a high, but now cannot get financing on the committed value, leading to defaults and lawsuits from mortgage lenders, sellers and builders.

As a parent with two adult kids about to launch, a drop in the value of Canada's housing through dramatically increased supply is necessary, but unless this is well planned out there may be serious unintended consequences.
 
I'd like government to make mortgage lending stricter. Larger downpayment requirements and shorter amortization. Reducing buying power will take steam out of the housing market and reduce financial system risk for the needed correction in house prices. This addresses the demand side of the problem .

The supply side is multifaceted. We need more skilled trades, we need to increase construction sector productivity, we need to reduce development charges and shift burden to the property tax base (hello land value tax), and encourage the development of rental housing. I think encouraging coop housing would also be helpful.
 
I'd like government to make mortgage lending stricter. Larger downpayment requirements and shorter amortization. Reducing buying power will take steam out of the housing market and reduce financial system risk for the needed correction in house prices. This addresses the demand side of the problem .

The supply side is multifaceted. We need more skilled trades, we need to increase construction sector productivity, we need to reduce development charges and shift burden to the property tax base (hello land value tax), and encourage the development of rental housing. I think encouraging coop housing would also be helpful.
The problem in the housing market right now is that buyers can't qualify for mortgages needed to finance new-construction housing. Why in the world would we make it even harder to qualify for mortgages?! It would just restrict supply even further.

By forcing people into not being able to buy doesn't remove demand. Those people still exist. They are just forced into overly conservative lending practices and will be sidelined to renting for longer, increasing the perceived unaffordability of the housing market.

Canada has an extremely low mortgage delinquency rate, the problem in housing is not that people are taking out oversized mortgages.

The Liberal platform is right in calling for a review to mortgage lending practices to analyze opportunities to increase borrowing power of buyers. Canada's mortgage lending rules are fairly conservative and restrict access to capital in the housing market to actually address supply shortages.

If you want to address the demand side of things, you need to address immigration, as that is the only thing that can slow household formation rates
 
I’d like government to invest in far better income redistribution than they do now…

…but I‘ll be just happy if they don’t send us to Trumpland when they get in. And /glares at the Conservatives.
 
Makes sense. I'd like to think there is a benefit to having those who makes the laws being lawyers themselves. Health departments likely benefit from having doctors, such as Dr. Jane Philpott (Minister of Health from 2015 to 2017) and Dr. Carolyn Bennett (Minister of State for Public Health from 2003 to 2006 and Minister of Mental Health and Addictions from 2021 to 2023). Former soldiers as Minister of National Defence is not uncommon, though Harjit Sajjan wasn't very good.
Pros and cons. Effective leadership and listening to those who do know can be just as effective. The CEO of a hospital is not always a doctor.

Strictly speaking, all elected members are 'lawmakers'.
 
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Overall to me this is less about voting for the Tories and more of its time to fire the current government for their poor performance. Yes there is a risk the new guys will mess up but the current set already have IMHO.

In any case, given where the polls are we are likely headed for a majority Liberal government unless something drastic happens in this last week.
The Liberals deserve criticism but to me, the idea of the Conservatives is better than their reality. They have a pretty weak bench. Veteran political commentators struggle to even name a possible finance minister out of the CPC caucus. Who would even be a part of a Poilievre cabinet? Michael Cooper? Andrew Lawton? Melissa Lantsman? PP is filling the caucus with attack dogs. Any members with experience and know-how get shoved aside.

Case in point is how a long time member of the BC legislature and former provincial cabinet minister was disqualified as a candidate for unknown reasons in favour of a 25 year old with no political experience.

The new slogan now seems to be "Axe the Inflation Tax". Just unserious all around.

1745254875566.png
 
? Uh..... the CMHC financing programs are virtually the only reason anything is being built right now, and certainly no affordable housing project is viable without them.
My prediction of the Liberals housing platform is that none of what they proposed in their budget actually happens, or if it does, it won't amount to much extra supply on any timely basis.

But, they'll add additional funding to the (much-desired by industry) CMHC programs which will actually result in a lot of new construction starts. Much more so than the above programs.

Campaigning on CMHC financing isn't sexy though, especially when trying to attract the ABC vote from the NDPs.
 
The problem in the housing market right now is that buyers can't qualify for mortgages needed to finance new-construction housing. Why in the world would we make it even harder to qualify for mortgages?! It would just restrict supply even further.

They don't qualify for mortgages for good reason, the market price of housing remains misaligned with median incomes. I'm all for incomes going up as opposed to property prices coming down, but one way or the other, the current market isn't tenable and more permissive lending is not the solution.

By forcing people into not being able to buy doesn't remove demand.

Um, in the context of 'supply and demand' yes, it does, if you reduce the number of buyers for a product, in theory, the sellers should have to lower their price to make a sale, once the price declines sufficiently, buyers return to the market.

Those people still exist. They are just forced into overly conservative lending practices and will be sidelined to renting for longer, increasing the perceived unaffordability of the housing market.

No, they are sidelined to due to lack of income, and excessive land/house pricing.

Canada has an extremely low mortgage delinquency rate, the problem in housing is not that people are taking out oversized mortgages.

Also not correct. What has happened is that a huge number of bankruptcy/mortgage delinquencies were addressed by allowing re-financing over significantly more years.

The number of Canadians who now have 40-year mortgages should both shock and appall.

Back in 2023, this Bank of Canada report suggested 2/3 of mortgage holders were struggling to meet their payment obligations:


This is also from 2023:

1745274670665.png



Canadians also have record or near record levels of household debt and well above OECD norms.

We've kept the boat above the waterline by doing a lot of bailing.

If you want to address the demand side of things, you need to address immigration, as that is the only thing that can slow household formation rates

That would certainly help. Though I would specify that the TFW category remains of deep concern, the suggestion from the Liberals is getting the number of non-permanent residents/citizens back down to under 5%, but the historic norm is under 3%. If you removed 2% of the population of Canada over 2 years, or about 840,000 people you would definitely see prices moderate.

We could (and should) also outlaw short-term rentals entirely. This would bring over 10,000 units to market in Toronto in short order.

Of course, if the above were sustained, prices would decline be 25% or more...........and a whole lot (more) mortgagees would be under water.

***

I would like to see 25% down payments, and no mortgage insurance mandates.

This would naturally tighten underwriting and would substantially protect people against real estate price volatility.

I would like to also see mortgages structured with 25-year amortization limits and clear requirement that on a first mortgage a buyer must agree to a 5-year term (or shorter if they are able top pay it off), and be a 45% equity holder at the 5-year mark.
 
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