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Tory was speaking to a right-leaning Jewish group (where support of Israel runs high). I am curious what he'll say tonight at the ProudTOVote debate.
 
nfitz said:
I'd suggest following Eric Grenier's analyses at http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/municipal.html (which is similar at Tory 44%, Ford 29%, and Chow 26%).
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I am a fan of his, even though he put way too much stock in the "likely" voter polls during the Ontario election. But overall he is pretty good.

I put positive weight to the Forum poll because simply they have a much better record than Ipsos (in the last two provincial and the last municipal election) and mainstreet tech doesn't have a record to speak of. Sure this last poll was a snap poll right after the announcement, and it probably not be my final number. But I can only calculate with what's in front of me.

I wouldn't sleep on Doug, I mean under normal circumstances I had my doubts that Rob will get 30%, and I really think had no chance to even get that. BUT with this whole "St Rob" thing, and with other candidates fighting with nerf gloves on. I think the Fords will do everything they can to push their numbers. I still think Tory 40% is soft, with some hard-core right-wingers afraid of Chow giving Tory a vote to keep Chow out and Anybody but Ford people voting for him to keep Ford out. I don't think Tory 40% is loyal and if it looks like Chow not in the race, I can see some hardcore Chow haters going to Doug because he "relates to them more than softie Tory" The whole "Cancer-watch 2014" that going on in the news I think changes things if Doug stays above 30% this month.

I like Tory campaign more than Chow, but his policies are really awful and so pandering
 
StatGeek said:
I put positive weight to the Forum poll because simply they have a much better record than Ipsos (in the last two provincial and the last municipal election) and mainstreet tech doesn't have a record to speak of.
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Fair enough, though that Forum polls, differs significantly from all the earlier Forum polls in regards to Chow's support, though there is a downward trend.
 
I really question whether anyone buys into a "St Rob" narrative. Some of the polls suggesting significant support for Thug were ludicrous, notably Forum had him topping out the 18-34 age group.

As for Mainstreet, they were the only ones to release methodology and sampling weights. Otherwise they used the same technique as Forum, yet got a wildly different result for Thug. It is simply not credible that the heretofore unpopular Doug Ford is getting some kind of "bump" from his cynical entry into the election.

Anyway, we have seen ample evidence in recent years that polling has become increasingly unreliable. In a municipal election, the sources of sampling error and bias may be even worse, and the wild within strata swings suggest this.

Forum also has been known incredibly biased questions - asking for preference between LRT and subway in Scarb on the false premise that they have equal costs.
 
Wading into gay pride parade politics, are we, John Tory?

Ugh. I wonder what's going on in poor Tory's head. I, a proud gay man, wonder why Tory would go there in this damned campaign. Tory could end up road kill again.

Take my advice, John Tory (given neutrally): it looks better on you if you stay focused. Learn it.
 
TonyV said:
Wading into gay pride parade politics, are we, John Tory?

Ugh. I wonder what's going on in poor Tory's head. I, a proud gay man, wonder why Tory would go there in this damned campaign. Tory could end up road kill again.
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Indeed he could.

I was still pondering if it made sense to support Tory, despite his past history of racist support - which perhaps was just incidental.

But here he goes, re-opening a long-since resolved issue, and supporting a very anti-gay position. It stinks of prejudice ... and raises the spectre that his history of supporting racists is more than accidental.

I'm done with him. He had plenty of time before the second debate to simply refine his position. But instead he raised the stakes, and made it clear that he would change the rules to ban this group, despite them being cleared after an investigation. That is the very definition of prejudice.
 
nfitz said:
But here he goes, re-opening a long-since resolved issue, and supporting a very anti-gay position. It stinks of prejudice ... and raises the spectre that his history of supporting racists is more than accidental.
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You love to label people, especially if you've already decided you're against them. First he's racist because he supported Ford at some point, although now it's incidental after Chow showed him support as well and our darling Chow couldn't be racist, but then you go on to label him taking an anti-gay position when the subject is a specific political group in the parade. Having nothing to do with being anti-gay in the slightest.
 
To be honest, I just want Doug to lose. If Tory insists on being an idiot, I can easily vote for someone else.
 
So this looks like Tory's attempt to appeal to anti-gay voters whilst trying to grab Jewish voters that tend to lead to Chow's side.

To say I'm not impressed would be a huge understatement. Every time I think this guy can't stoop any lower he proves me wrong.
 
Nfitz, prove that John Tory is homophobic and racist. I want objective, indisputable proof. No one ever challenges your asinine claims hard enough. Things aren't facts because you say they are. Your opinions aren't universally held.
 
I don't really understand the predicament Tory is in. Come out in support of pride, but against this one group, don't come across as anti-Palestine, come across as anti-nationalist. Make the controversy about the group (even if it is a repeatedly proven dead horse), don't allow media attention to revolve back into some Tory anti-gay tirade, forget about it all in a week time. Hiding from reporters plays into the latter instead of the former and is guaranteed to allow this to stay relevant in the coming month.
 
Man, Tory does know how to unravel himself completely over an issue no-one was talking about, and manage to hack people off about it. The bigots will stick with Ford, anti-Ford supporters might well start seriously considering a mayoral candidate who has been a regular attendee and supporter of Pride for some years now. Queers for Olivia, indeed. Talk about an unforced error: it bounced badly for Tory and played to one of Chow's real strengths.
 
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