[King of Kensington]

Actually David Emerson represents Vancouver-Kingsway, a working class east Vancouver seat that has a very large Chinese vote. The Tories barely got their deposit back last time and I doubt Emerson will even run again. I think it's a likely NDP pickup.

Quadra is a west side seat and it's very similar to St. Paul's - a small-"l" liberal "silk stocking" seat - chock full of affluent, highly-educated voters who can't stand Harper.

As the GTA diversifies more and more seats are out of reach. Harper's best hopes are less diverse fringe seats like Mississauga South, Oakville and Newmarket-Aurora.

In Quebec there are probably about 10 potential pickups. In Atlantic Canada they'll likely lose ground and they've probably maxed out in the West (I've always put little stock in BC polling numbers because they fluctuate greatly).

 

[allabootmatt]

I was gonna say that Quadra sounded unlikely--wasn't that Svend's old constituency?

I do wonder if the Quebec polling is really as bad for the Libs as it sounds, and if reports of their death in off-island PQ have been somewhat exaggerated. I just don't buy that come election day hundreds of thousands of voters are going to decamp en masse to a party they've never voted for. Maybe I misunderstand Quebec politics (entirely possible--that particular spread of knowledge stops in my family with my parents' generation) but it just seems ginned up.

 

[adma]

I was gonna say that Quadra sounded unlikely--wasn't that Svend's old constituency?

No, Svend was in a series of Burnaby ridings. Quadra was classically PC until John Turner arrived at the helm in 1984--and being a generally affluent riding, NDP's traditionally fared a poor third there.